Surprising Losses as NCAA Championship Week winds down

The most important week throughout the NCAA season outside of the NCAA tournament is coming to a close, and true to form there have been some shocking upsets and head-scratching losses. As always, the two key stories at this point are:
Who will take the #1 seeds?
Which bubble teams will make the NCAA tourney and which will be stuck with the NIT?

Among teams who had a chance at a #1 seed before Conference Tournament week, none of Indiana, Duke or Georgetown made their respective conference tournaments. A testament to this wild college season is the fact that two of those three teams can still end with a #1 seed. An even bigger question is who will get the #1 overall seed. With the three favorites all losing, the top remaining candidates have to be Louisville, Kansas, and Gonzaga. Lousiville would almost definitely clinch the #1 overall with a win over Syracuse in the Big East finale tonight. If they lose, Kansas might do the same with a win over Kansas State. Gonzaga has to feel slighted by the fact that, due to their not playing in a major conference, they will almost certainly not be the #1 overall, despite their #1 ranking in the AP poll. Anyway, answering the question, it looks like the #1 seeds will be as follows: Louisville (with a win), Gonzaga, Kansas (with a win), Indiana. If Louisville and/or Kansas lose, teams like Duke or Miami (with a win) could sneak into a #1 slot. This has been a big down year if you like dominant teams. None of these teams have been proven unbeatable or even close to it, and by the numbers, the best team is Florida, who currently looks to be a #3 seed.

The bubble situation is even murkier. Let’s start with a quick overview of who did themselves well this week and who did not:
Well:
Mississippi- Beat Missouri, and avoided a bad loss by beating Vanderbilt. In the SEC final, could be in even with a loss to Florida.
Maryland- Beat Duke (again), and was close to really surprising people by beating UNC in the semis but they lost by three. Now more on the bubble than they were before the conference tourney, when they were really on the fringe.
Iowa State- They beat Oklahoma, who should be in, before losing to Kansas.
Massachusets- Their win over Temple was solid, but they could have really put themselves in the mix by beating VCU. They lost, and while their previous win improves their status, it might not be enough.

Didn’t help or hurt themselves:
Alabama- Knocked off fellow bubble-dweller Tennessee, but missed out on a big chance with a loss to Florida. Probably headed for the NIT.Iowa- Avoided a bad loss, but then lost by 3 (3!) to Michigan State, which probably knocked them out of contention.
Southern Miss- Playing in a bad conference, they needed to make the finals against Memphis to stay in the conversation and did just that. Probably needed to win the auto bid to make it, though.
St. Marys- Ditto to Southern Miss. They just couldn’t beat Gonzaga.

Ouch, that hurt:
Virginia- Lost most of their chance at an auto bid with a disappointing loss to NC State.
Tennessee- Lost to Alabama, probably knocking them out of the field.
La Salle- Had an opportunity to seal entrance, but lost to Butler.
Oklahoma- Probably still in, but their loss to Iowa State kept them from locking it up.
Baylor- Lost to OK-State (by 2!) in their last chance to add another good win.
Kentucky- Were in the tourney field before a bad conference tournament loss to Vanderbilt, probably knocking them off.
Boise State- Had a chance to help themselves by beating San Diego State, but instead just barely lost. I still think they’ll make it, but like La Salle they are squarely on the bubble.
Middle Tennessee- It would be a shame if they missed it because of their fluky Sun Belt loss to FIU in the semi finals. This 28-5 team is clearly very good, but it just so happens that they play in a conference that is almost always a 1 bid conference, so they are really on the bubble. Hopefully they make it.

Of the bubble teams that I mentioned above, about six will make it. My bet is that Oklahoma and Ole Miss are the next two in, followed by Boise State and Middle Tennessee. The last two slots will be up to St. Mary’s, La Salle, Maryland, and Virginia. I see St. Mary’s going in, with the last spot a toss up between the La Salle Explorers and Maryland Terps.