After one game apiece, it already appears very likely that the Warriors and Rockets will advance to the Western Conference Finals without too much difficulty. Both teams blitzed their opponents in their first game, taking huge leads and cruising down the stretch. The Pelicans and Jazz will surely have better games, but I think it’s pretty safe to say that, if there’s to be any intrigue in the second round, it’ll come from the Eastern Conference. I wouldn’t say either series is quite a tossup, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if either underdog won. Let’s start with the series that I think is hardest to predict.
Toronto Raptors over Cleveland Cavaliers in 7: Man, is this tough. On the one hand, you have a matchup between a 59-win mostly-healthy team that’s very deep and seemed to exorcize some offensive demons in Round One going up against a shallow, banged-up, defense-light 4-seed that barely — and luckily, given that the Cavs were -6.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes in the series — made it out of Round One. If you look at the series that way, picking the Raptors should win should be a no-brainer.
On the other hand, you have a matchup between a good-but-not-great team that still bogs down down the stretch and has never gotten over the hump in the playoffs against the best player in the world, who is impossible to stop down the stretch and who hasn’t lost a playoff series to an Eastern Conference team since 2010. If you look at the series that was, it’s hard not to pick the Cavs.
If Cleveland’s supporting cast plays the way it did in the first round, the Cavs are going home. I just think it would be impossible for LeBron James to carry the same load for another entire series without dropping off. We started to see his fatigue in Game Seven of the Indiana series, when he left the game with cramps in the second half. He ended up coming back, but after the end of the game admitted how tired he was. His Cavs return to action on Tuesday, two days after that heroic performance. The bad news for the Cavaliers is that Toronto has better options to guard LeBron than Indiana did. The Pacers’ strategy seemed to be to basically cover James straight up, allowing him to score but slowing down the production of, among others, Kevin Love. That strategy largely worked, as the Cavs have the fourth least-efficient offense in the playoffs, which is especially striking given that they were the best offense in the league post-trade deadline. But down the stretch, when LeBron needed to score, he almost always did. Indiana mainly guarded LeBron with Bojan Bogdanovic, and while Bogdanovic had his moments, it was quite a mismatch. Toronto has two guys — OG Anunoby and Paskal Siakam — who should be much better LeBron defenders than anyone Indiana could throw at him. And in the regular season, the Raptors were actually a better defensive team than the Pacers. But with all of that said, I still expect the Cavaliers to score much better than they did against Indiana. With the possible exception of Kyle Korver, who did Kyle Korver things against the Pacers, everyone on the team has significant room for improvement. These teams played each other twice down the stretch. The Cavs won both games, by scores of 132-129 and 112-106. They scored 140.4 and 113.1 points per 100 possessions in those two games, evidence that they weren’t at all bothered by Toronto’s defense. There are definitely reasons to be concerned. Kevin Love has a finger injury that’s almost certainly contributed to his poor playoff performance, and George Hill has been in and out of the lineup due to back stiffness. Those two guys are perhaps Cleveland’s second and third most important players, and their health is vital in this series. But I believe that the 32% three point shooting in the first round was a fluke and that Cleveland will score at a significantly higher rate than they did against Indiana.
They’ll need to, because their defense is still clearly a problem. The Pacers got to the rim 39.2% of the time, hitting on 67.3% of their shots at the rim. And that’s not something the Cavs are going to be able to fix, because they have no rim protection. That’s good for the Raptors, whose two best players — and especially DeMar DeRozan — are frequent drivers. Given their previous playoff struggles, it was crucial for DeRozan and Kyle Lowry to have strong first round performances. And they did. DeRozan got a little too iso-happy down the stretch of Toronto’s losses, but he averaged 26.7 points per game on perfectly fine (44%) shooting. And Lowry had a terrific series, averaging 17/5/8/2 steals on 47% shooting and 44% from beyond the arc. There’s no evidence that Cleveland will be able to stop either guard. Toronto relies heavily upon its supporting cast, and will ask a lot of Anunoby and Siakam on the defensive end. Jonas Valanciunas had a good first series, but his playing time might be limited because I don’t think he’ll be able to defend anyone unless Tristan Thompson or maybe Larry Nance is on the floor for Cleveland. So if the Cavs go small, the Raptors will likely respond by bringing in some of their bench. And their bench looked good in the first round once Fred Van Vleet returned from injury. Van Vleet and Delon Wright will be important in this series, because I think one of them will be on the court in crunch time when both teams opt for more versatile two-way lineups. The Raptors were excellent (+12.6 points per 100 possessions) in the regular season with Serge Ibaka at center. I think those lineups (Lowry-Van Vleet-DeRozan-Anunoby-Ibaka or Lowry-Wright-DeRozan-Anunoby-Ibaka) will be effective in this series.
It’s really hard for me to pick against LeBron James, especially against a Raptors team he’s dominated in past postseasons. But Cleveland’s lingering injuries, its lack of reliable depth, and its weakness defensively make it likely that LeBron will again be forced to shoulder an extremely heavy burden. If anyone can do it, it’s him, but I think the Raptors will prove to be just a little too deep over the course of a seven game series. The fact that they get Game Seven at home is huge, too.
Philadelphia 76ers over Boston Celtics in 5: In a lot of ways, this series should be very similar to Philadelphia’s first round series against the Heat. Like Miami, the Celtics are star-less and face a significant talent disadvantage. They also have a brilliant head coach and a very stout defense. The Heat actually succeeded in slowing down the Sixers’ offense in the first round, as Philadelphia’s 51.2% eFG (field goal percentage accounting for the extra point on threes) was three full ticks down from its regular season number. They also did an excellent job of limiting Philadelphia in transition. But the Sixers overcame that defense by crashing the offensive boards (33.2% offensive rebound rate) and getting to the line (28% of the time), both of which are the highest rates in the playoffs. That sets up an interesting matchup with a Boston team that held Milwaukee to a 16.9% offensive rebound rate and a 17.9% free throw rate. To me, it should be more encouraging to the Sixers that the Bucks were able to score well when they got into their offense than discouraging that they weren’t able to capitalize on the offensive glass or at the line. Because there’s only so much you can do to keep guys like Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, and Ben Simmons off of the glass and especially Embiid off the line. So if the Sixers shoot the way the Bucks did in the first round, they’re going to win the series. The Celtics must do what the Heat did, turning the games into physical battles, keeping the pace slow, and forcing the Sixers to beat them one-on-one.
The Celtics have one big defensive advantage over the Heat: Al Horford. The Heat are a good defensive team with a clear weakness at center, while the Celtics are a great defensive team with a strength at center. In the regular season, Horford was successful defensively against both Simmons and Embiid. He’s a really tough matchup for Embiid, who must be careful not to settle for contested long twos. Embiid has a big size advantage, so he should be able to score in the paint when he gets there. The key will be putting him in positions to score without too much dribbling. Boston has no weaknesses defensively, which is why they’re so tough. Marcus Smart is a great defender. So is Jaylen Brown (more on him soon). Jayson Tatum and Semi Ojeleye are both rookies, but they’re both long, strong, and athletic enough to be immediate plusses on defense. The same is true for Terry Rozier, while Marcus Morris is another tenacious defender. When the Celtics have Horford playing center, they can basically switch on anything. They have multiple defenders — Ojeleye, Smart, and Morris in particular — who match up well with Ben Simmons. They should be able to blanket J.J. Redick and Marco Belinelli and make things tough for Simmons and Embiid. I was a bit puzzled by the ease with which Khris Middleton was able to get to his spots and score on the Celtics, but I don’t expect to see a repeat in this series. It’s going to be tough for the Sixers.
The problem for Boston is that without Kyire Irving they just have no scoring. That’s especially true now that Brown is doubtful for Game One with a hamstring injury. Without Brown, their big scoring threats are Horford, Tatum, and Rozier. All three of those guys are good, but I think it’s obvious that it’s not enough. Even with Rozier (18 points per game) and Horford (18 points per game on 59%/44% shooting) playing over their heads, the Celtics barely had enough scoring to beat the Bucks in the first round. And that was with Brown (21 points per game in his six fully healthy games) available and playing well. The Sixers are a much better defensive team than the Bucks. They’re more disciplined, better-coached, and, most importantly, they have Joel Embiid anchoring the paint (rather than, er, John Henson, Tyler Zeller, or Thon Maker). They were the third best defense in the league in the regular season, and they were even better against the Heat, who managed just 102.8 points per 100 possessions. The Heat were basically only able to score when they got hot from three or when they got to the line. I think that’ll largely also be true for Boston. Otherwise, they’ll be forced to hoist a barrage of contested long twos, which is not the recipe for playoff success. Just ask Russell Westbrook.
If Brown’s out, the Celtics have no chance. If he were fully healthy, I’d switch my prediction to Sixers in 6. I’m operating under the assumption that he’ll miss the first game and return after that. Brad Stevens is a really good coach, and he has the personnel to really bother Philadelphia’s offense. I expect there to be a few rock fights in this series that come down to the wire. But Boston just won’t be able to score enough to win the series.