Archive for the ‘Basketball’ Category

It’s Time to Get Excited for Tankapalooza

Posted: 02/16/2018 by levcohen in Basketball

Every year at about this time — around the All-Star break — something happens to the worst teams in the NBA: they get much, much worse. That’s because the race for the top picks in the draft (well, the best odds at the top picks in the draft) is just as competitive as, say, the race for the #8 seed. The difference between the #1 pick and the #5 pick is massive, and yet often only a couple of games in the standings separates the team with the top lottery odds from teams in the 4-7 range. Because top picks are so valuable in the NBA, and because teams at the bottom of the standings at this point have no chance at making the playoffs, bad teams have every incentive to lose as many games as they can. I know it usually is hard to get excited about a race to the bottom, but this year should be an exception simply because it’s such a wide open race. Usually, there are five-ish teams that have a chance at the worst record and enter full tank mode at this point of the season. Heading into the All-Star break this year, though, there are six teams tied for last with 18 wins, two more with 19 or 20 wins, and the Knicks, who at 23-36 are within shouting distance and just lost their best player to a torn ACL. So there are nine teams with legitimate hopes of finishing at the bottom of the standings. I’m going to go through each team and examine the factors working for and against their push for top lottery odds.

Atlanta Hawks (currently 18-41):
Why they’ll finish last:

  • They currently are tied with Phoenix for the worst record in the league, so they have a bit of a head start.
  • They have a tough remaining schedule. Their opponents down the stretch have won 53% of their games, and they play one more road game than home game. They’re 5-24 on the road this season. Included down the stretch is a brutal six game road trip (@MIL, @UTA, @SAC, @GS, @HOU, @MIN) right before they finish six of seven games against likely Eastern Conference playoff teams.
  • Dennis Schroder, their point guard, minutes leader, and leader in points and assists per game (19.5 and 6.3 respectively), is very talented but also inconsistent and poor defensively. That’s obviously hurt them already this season, but the defensive weakness should be exploited more often by playoff teams down the stretch.
  • They bought out Marco Belinelli, their leader in made three pointers and a key cog getting about 23 minutes per game. They also traded Luke Babbitt, a wing shooting 44% from three, in a clear attempt to get less efficient from beyond the arc. The Hawks are actually above average in three point shooting this year, but this should help remedy that. They’ll want Schroder, an effective driver but a 29% three point shooter, to keep jacking threes.

Why they won’t finish last:

  • The Hawks haven’t been the worst team in basketball so far, even if their record suggests that they have been. They rank 27th in net rating and have won about 1.8 fewer games than they should have at this point, according to Cleaning the Glass. Chicago, Sacramento, and Phoenix have all been worse. They rank 29th in offense and 30th in defense.
  • They have some useful role players who will not help them lose games. Taurean Prince and Kent Bazemore are solid two-way wings who could be bench pieces on good teams. Rookie big John Collins plays with a lot of energy and puts up good numbers. And veteran big man Dewayne Dedmon has been very good all season, putting up career high numbers and helping the Hawks immensely (they’re 6.1 points per 100 possessions better when he’s on the floor than when he’s off it). Maybe Dedmon will get “injured” at some point down the stretch.
  • They’ve been fairly healthy. Their three highest-usage players, Schroder, Prince, and Bazemore, have missed a total of five games all year and are healthy going into the All-Star break.
  • They’re playing their best basketball of the season, going 8-11 in the 19 games leading into the break. That includes a win at Denver, which is a super tough place to win, as well as victories over the Spurs, Jazz, Pelicans (with Cousins), Timberwolves, and Pistons (with Griffin). And coach Mike Budenholzer is good enough to get some wins in games that the Hawks have no business winning.

Phoenix Suns (currently 18-41):
Why they’ll finish last:

  • They currently are tied with Atlanta for the worst record in the league, so they have a bit of a head start.
  • They have a tough remaining schedule. Their opponents down the stretch have won 53% of their games, and they play one more road game than home game (sound familiar?). They have three games against Golden State, two against Cleveland, two against OKC, and one against Houston left.
  • They have the worst net rating in the league (-9.2, per Cleaning the Glass), four points per 100 worse than Atlanta and in the same stratosphere as only Sacramento. They’ve also played some of their worst basketball of late, with just three wins in their last 20 games. They recently lost by 40+ points twice in a three game stretch, meaning they’ve now lost by more than 40 points four times this season. Steve Kerr let Golden State’s players coach the team against the Suns, which shows how worried he was about Phoenix’s talent.
  • Devin Booker, easily their best player, has been hampered with a hip injury lately. He recently returned from a short absence, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the injury keeps him out more down the stretch.
  • They traded for point guard Elfrid Payton and are playing him 35 minutes per game. In fairness, he’s been terrific in his three games with the team, averaging 20.3/8.3/8.7 on 57/50/83 shooting. But anyone who’s seen Payton play in Orlando over the past four years knows that he’s not a great player.
  • Their role players are generally young and not ready to help them win games. Marquese Chriss, Dragan Bender, Josh Jackson, and Tyler Ulis all have different games, but they have a few things in common: they’re all between 20 and 22, they’re all playing more than 20 minutes per game, and none of them are particularly good NBA players at this point. Bender’s the only one of the four shooting better than 30% from three, which is part of the reason that the Suns rank dead last in three point percentage (33%).
  • They have a lot of moving parts. 20 players have played games for them already. Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley are clearly over the hill and play consistent minutes for this team. And Troy Daniels is the only guy on the team between the ages of 25 and 31. Not good!
  • Jay Triano is just an interim head coach, so it’s unlikely that the players will feel the need to play particularly hard for him down the stretch.

Why they won’t finish last:

  • When Booker is healthy and he and T.J. Warren get it going, they can be pretty hard to stop sometimes. Other than that, I’ve got nothing. This is the team with the best chance to be the worst team going forward.

Dallas Mavericks (18-40):
Why they’ll finish last:

  • They’ve been super unlucky, winning just 25% of their games decided by five points or fewer. Who’s to say that bad luck won’t continue for the rest of the season?
  • They may start putting the ball in Dennis Smith Jr.’s hands more often, both to give him experience and to help them lose games. Smith is shooting just 39% from the floor, and the Mavericks have been 15.6 points per 100 possessions worse when he’s on the floor than when he’s off of it. More minutes for DSJ = more losses.

Why they won’t finish last:

  • They have a fairly easy schedule. Their opponents have won 48% of their games on average, although they do have two more road games than home games down the stretch.
  • They have a consistent rotation, with six players who have played in 50+ games and are playing 23+ minutes per game.
  • They don’t make many mistakes, as they actually have the lowest turnover rate in the league (12.9%, per Cleaning the Glass).
  • Their net rating is -2.2, which is 21st in the league and the best of the nine teams in this tanking race. The only reason that they’re 18-40 is that they’ve underperformed that net rating by 6.9 games after losing a lot of close games. They’ve been the unluckiest (or, they may argue, the luckiest) team in the league, and it isn’t close. Next up are the Hornets, who have underperformed by 3.3 games.
  • They play hard for Rick Carlisle, their head coach. They also have an experienced team. Dirk is obviously a consummate professional, Harrison Barnes is their best player and in his prime, Wes Matthews and J.J. Barea are solid role players who know what to do, and Yogi Ferrell is a competent point guard.
  • They’ve been relatively injury-free and will likely get Nerlens Noel back at some point. Noel’s been stuck in Carlisle’s doghouse for most of the season, but he can only help.

Sacramento Kings (18-39):
Why they’ll finish last:

  • It’s the Kings, the most futile franchise in the league. They can’t even win games when they really want to.
  • They’re the only team that can challenge Phoenix’s futility through nearly 60 games. Thanks to a league-worst offense (and the #28 defense), they’re just .1 points per 100 possessions better than the Suns and 3.8 worse than the #28 overall Bulls.
  • Like the Suns, their record is way better than it should be based on their net rating. Both teams should probably have 13 or 14 wins right now, and it’s safe to expect that their record down the stretch will be more in line with the net rating than with the current record.
  • They have no go-to scorer. Zach Randolph is their leading scorer, and he’s averaging 14.6 points per game. He was also mysteriously missing from the starting lineup in Sacramento’s last game, which may be a sign of things to come.
  • The Kings benched and then traded veteran guard George Hill, showing how hard they’ll be tanking. They also have extra incentive to get a high draft pick because they’ll be without their first rounder the following season.
  • They have no consistent lineup. Randolph is the only player who’s started more than 38 games, and the Kings as a team have no lineup that has played more than 272 possessions. To put that in perspective, Dallas has three such lineups, including two that have played more than 450 possessions. Heading into tonight’s game with the Lakers, Minnesota’s starting lineup had played 2,090 possessions together, showing how much the Kings really are mixing up their lineups on a night to night basis. That’s not conducive to a lot of on-court success.
  • Their starting point guard, De’Aaron Fox, just recently turned 20, and it shows. He has potential, but he’s one of the worst starting point guards in the league at this point.

Why they won’t finish last:

  • 16 of their final 25 games come at home. Of course, they’ve been the second worst home team in the league behind the Suns, but still.
  • They’re the second best three point shooting team in the league, and guys like Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic can score points in bunches.

Orlando Magic (18-39):
Why they’ll finish last:

  • They just traded starting point guard Elfrid Payton. Payton’s not that good, but he was still their starting point guard.
  • They’re 10-35 since starting 8-4. So they’ve been the worst team in the league if you arbitrarily exclude the first seventh of the season.
  • This has been the case for years, but their players don’t really make sense together. Their four best players — Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Nikola Vucevic, Jonathon Simmons — are all forwards or centers, and their guards are very weak, especially without Payton. D.J. Augustin, Terrence Ross, Mario Hezonja, Shelvin Mack… it isn’t pretty.
  • Gordon and Vucevic are both currently injured and will likely miss more games coming up. That’s a good thing for a team that clearly wants to lose games.

Why they won’t finish last:

  • Their remaining opponents have won 48% of their games, and 14 of their final 25 are at home, where they’ve been much better.
  • When healthy, the trio of Fournier, Gordon, and Vucevic allow the Magic to form an offense that can be potent. They rank 18th in offensive efficiency, best among these nine teams. Lineups with Fournier-Gordon-Vucevic at SF-PF-C are putting up 113.3 points per 100 possessions, which would rank fourth in the NBA. Gordon and Vucevic are getting healthy, which means their offense may be just too good for them to stay in the race for the #1 pick.
  • The lineup of Augustin-Ross-Fournier-Gordon-Vucevic, which we may see a lot more now that Payton is gone, has been an astounding +24.1 points per 100 possessions, albeit in just 153 total possessions. That’s probably just small sample size, but if it’s anything more than that it’ll likely earn the Magic some wins.
  • I think their overall roster talent level is higher than that of any of the other teams I’ve gone over so far.

Memphis Grizzlies (18-38):
Why they’ll finish last:

  • 15 of their final 26 games come on the road, where they’ve gone 5-21 so far this year. That’s a lot of opportunities for losses.
  • Mike Conley is out for the season, and Chandler Parsons is nowhere to be seen. This is a team with very little quality depth, as guys like Andrew Harrison, Mario Chalmers, and Jarell Martin are getting way more minutes than they should be. Ben McLemore is also getting minutes, which, well, he’s Ben McLemore.
  • They’ve lost seven straight games, which may be a sign of things to come. Although they don’t have a difficult schedule overall down the stretch, their first three games are Cleveland, at Miami, and at Boston. Things could snowball pretty quickly for them.

Why they won’t finish last:

  • They still have Marc Gasol, who’s probably the best all-around player on any of these nine teams. It’s hard to be the worst team in the league when you have Marc Gasol.
  • They bizarrely didn’t trade Tyreke Evans, who’s having an exceptional season. He’s averaging 19.5/5.1/5 on 46/40/79 shooting this year. That’s a good player to have if you want to win (which is why teams were trying to trade for him) but a very bad player to have if you want to lose. This is also a sign that they’re not going all-in on tanking like Sacramento and some of these other teams.
  • They have a more experienced team than most of these teams. Even the young players they’re giving minutes to, like Dillon Brooks, stayed in college for three or four years and are less raw than the Fox or Jackson type.
  • They’re solid defensively and don’t get blown out as often as, say Sacramento or Phoenix. They’ve been unlucky in close games so far, but that’s likely to change, which should move them (like Dallas) up the standings.

Brooklyn Nets (19-40):
Why they’ll finish last:

  • They’ve been riddled with injuries this year. Jeremy Lin got hurt in the first game of the year. Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, two key players, are currently out. D’Angelo Russell recently returned after a long injury break and has been ice cold from three since his return. They weren’t very deep to begin with, so this obviously hurts.
  • They’ve played some of their worst basketball recently, going 1-11 in their last 12 games.
  • I don’t think they have a single above-average all-around player, unlike everyone I’ve gone through so far besides Sacramento and Atlanta (and Schroder is also likely better than anyone on the Nets).
  • They have 14 road games and just nine home games left.

Why they won’t finish last:

  • They have no incentive to lose. Cleveland owns their first round pick. So while all these other teams try to lose, they’ll be trying to win. Given that they’ve already been better than most of these teams, that’ll likely be enough to keep them from the bottom three or four.

Chicago Bulls (20-37):
Why they’ll finish last:

  • They traded Nikola Mirotic. They’re 14-11 with Mirotic in the lineup and 6-26 without him, so if that pace keeps up down the stretch they have a great chance at moving down the rankings.
  • Their top scorers are kings of empty, inefficient points. Zach LaVine and Justin Holiday are sub-40%, while Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen are shooting 43% from the field. This is why they have the third-worst offense in the league ahead of just Sacramento and Phoenix. And how about this for a stat: with Mirotic on the court, they scored 113.9 points per 100 possessions. That would be good for third in the league over the course of a full season. Without him, they’ve scored 101.3, which would easily be last. More last place offense going forward!
  • They’re a very young, inexperienced team.

Why they won’t finish last:

  • They may just have too many teams to drop beneath. They’re two games up on most of these teams in terms of wins, so they don’t have much of a margin for error. Of course, they went 3-20 to start the year without Mirotic, so they’ve proven that they can lose with the worst of them.
  • They have a fairly easy schedule down the stretch (opponent winning percentage of 48%).

New York Knicks (23-36):
Why they’ll finish last:

  • They just lost Kristaps Porzingis to a torn ACL, which means they may have the worst roster of all of these teams. They were already dropping games before he got hurt, but they’ve looked absolutely hopeless since he got hurt. They blew a 27 point lead against the Wizards, squandering a terrific game from Tim Hardaway Jr.
  • They have a fairly challenging remaining schedule.
  • They traded for Emmanuel Mudiay, who’s a bad point guard. Their point guard rotation is awful (Mudiay, Frank Ntilikina, Jarrett Jack, Trey Burke).

Why they won’t finish last:

  • Too many games to make up. They already have 23 wins, which puts them five games up in the win column over six of these teams. Some of those teams might not even win five games the rest of the season, which puts a floor on how far the Knicks could fall.
  • They didn’t go full tank mode before the deadline. They probably could have traded helpful role players like Courtney Lee, but those guys will now help the Knicks win a few games down the stretch. Not many, mind you, but probably enough to keep the Knicks out of the bottom three.

Here’s my best guess on how this will finish:

30th: Phoenix
29th: Sacramento
28th: Atlanta
27th: Chicago
26th: Orlando
25th: Memphis
24th: Brooklyn
23rd: New York
22nd: Dallas

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I was planning to write about the NBA trade deadline last night, which would have made sense given that the deadline was earlier yesterday. But then, on a night that was supposed to be light on sports I was going to watch, I started watching the Flyers game, figuring that I’d write the post after that was done. Then I realized Duke-North Carolina was on, and (shocker) it was a good, must-watch game. Once that was over, I switched to the final minutes and overtime of the Wizards-Celtics game, thinking that it may be a second round playoff preview (granted, without John Wall on the floor). And then I checked in on the beginning of the Olympics before finally settling down to write the post, at which point I took another peek at the college basketball scores and noticed that Arizona was losing at home to UCLA. Of course, I had to see if the Bruins could really notch a resume-building win in Arizona (they did), and that led me to the end of the night. This is not a rare occurrence. As I said before, at this time of year this was a light sports night. I guess as a Philadelphia sports fan I’m starting to realize how much of a commitment it is to watch as many Sixers and Flyers games as possible at this time of year. In past years, this wasn’t an issue, because either the Sixers or the Flyers (or, usually, both) weren’t good enough for me to feel the need to watch every game. Then there are the nightly national TV NBA and NHL games. Then there’s college basketball, which usually has a few games a night that I feel a need to watch. And for the next two weeks, there’ll be Olympic events going on around the clock. Shortly after that, the NCAA tournament starts, and we all know how much of a time commitment that can be. Football’s over, but for those of us who also care about other sports, it’ll barely be missed. What I’m trying to say is that it can be really hard to consume so much of so many sports! Nevertheless, instead of letting myself skip a [insert Big 12 game between ranked teams] game that seems super consequential in the moment but won’t actually end up meaning anything down the stretch, I’ll carry on, I guess because I’m just a courageous person. All of this leads me to the point of this post, which is the trade deadline.

My main takeaway from yesterday is: nobody got hosed. Because finding the deadline’s losers is usually the first exercise that comes after the trades, right? I tried to do it, but I couldn’t, because I think all of the moves that came on a relatively quiet deadline day made sense. The two biggest deals of the day, of course, involved the Cavaliers, who turned over half of their roster. It’s no surprise that Cleveland was active yesterday. The Cavs have been struggling mightily, something’s clearly not right in the locker room, and Cleveland must go for the title in what may be LeBron James’s final season in the Land. Their first trade came with the Lakers, who sent them Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. in return for Isaiah Thomas’s expiring contract, Channing Frye’s expiring contract, and Cleveland’s first round pick. It’s been very sad to see Thomas struggle so mightily with the Cavaliers, but the Cavs had to trade him. In return, they got Clarkson, a good scorer with a contract that’s slightly too big, and Nance, who I’d argue was worth the first round pick. He’s a nice role player averaging 8.6 points and 6.8 rebounds in 22 minutes per game while shooting 60% from the floor. In each of his three seasons, the Lakers have been significantly better with Nance on the floor than with him off it. He does all the little things (cliche but true) and could form an interesting small-ball power forward next to Kevin Love in crunch-time.

For the Lakers, the trade makes obvious sense. In trading Clarkson and getting back exclusively expiring contracts, they’ve opened up enough cap space to be able to fit two max contracts onto their roster. The speculation, of course, is that those contracts will go to LeBron James and Paul George. That’s what the Lakers hope for, obviously, but more likely is that they’ll maintain cap flexibility going into 2019 free agency. That’s good! And getting a late first round pick is a nice bonus. The Lakers hit on a late first rounder (Kyle Kuzma) last season, and also seem to have gotten a real rotation piece in the second round (Josh Hart). I’m sure they’re confident that they can add a piece to their roster with that Cleveland pick.

Cleveland’s second major trade was a three-teamer with Utah and Sacramento. The Cavs got George Hill (and his questionable contract) and Rodney Hood (restricted free agent after this year) in return for three guys who weren’t going to get them anywhere this season: Iman Shumpert, Derrick Rose, and Jae Crowder. I know Hill’s contract isn’t great (he’s set to make $19 million next season), but this is the type of risk the Cavs had to take. Hill and Hood give them two long wings who can defend, which is exactly what they needed. They are also both above-average three point shooters and solid secondary ball-handlers, making them perfect fits for LeBron. They were also able to get off of the Shumpert contract ($11 million player option next season) and to end the Rose experiment. Crowder was the most valuable piece they gave up, as he’s under contract for two more years at about $15 million, but he looked lost in Cleveland and the Cavs were ready to move on.

The Jazz were able to flip Hood, who they clearly had no interest in re-signing, and Joe Johnson’s expiring for Crowder and Rose (who they immediately released). Utah had interest in Crowder this off-season and tried to get him via sign-and-trade when it became clear that Gordon Hayward was going to sign with Boston. They’re gambling that he can find his form in a situation more similar to the one he was in with the Celtics, and they may well be right. If they are, they just got themselves a starting wing under cheap team control for two more years for an injury-prone wing who is set to become a free agent.

As for the Kings, the reason to do the trade was simple: they got out of the George Hill contract without having to give up draft picks or take much long-term money back. Sure, they had to take Shumpert and his $11 million cap hit next year, but that’s a much better deal than Hill’s and will still end after next season. Sacramento knows it still has a long rebuild ahead, and it was logical to move Hill.

The Cavs also moved Dwyane Wade to the Heat for a heavily protected second round pick, a move that probably won’t have much of an on-court impact but could help Cleveland chemistry-wise. Moving Wade/Crowder/Shumpert/Frye/Rose/Thomas away for Nance/Clarkson/Hood/Hill makes the Cavs younger and better. Will it be enough to beat the Warriors? Probably not. Will it have a major impact on LeBron James’s decision? Probably not. But they did it all without trading their coveted Nets pick, which means that Cleveland fans should have no real complaints.

There were minor moves elsewhere. The Knicks, Nuggets, and Mavericks made a three-team trade that sent Emmanuel Mudiay to New York, Doug McDermott to Dallas, and Devin Harris to Denver. It’s a move that allows Mudiay and McDermott to get fresh starts on rebuilding teams while giving the playoff-hopeful Nuggets a veteran at a position of need. Nice little trade!

Two Eastern Conference playoff hopefuls added rotation pieces to their roster. The Pistons picked up James Ennis and the Heat got Luke Babbitt in minor trades that won’t likely make a huge impact but have no risk attached to them. The Magic cut the cord on Elfrid Payton, who’ll be a free agent after this year, sending him to the Suns for a second round pick. Phoenix will get a look at a player who has some nice skills (shooting, unfortunately, is not one of them).

More striking were the players who didn’t move and the teams who stayed out of the mix. After encouraging rumors that they would continue to trade veteran players after dealing Blake Griffin, the Clippers held onto DeAndre Jordan, Avery Bradley, and Lou Williams (who they extended to a three-year deal that was great for the team and not so good for the player). The rebuilding Grizzlies bizarrely held onto Tyreke Evans even though he’s set to be an unrestricted free agent. A first round pick would have been enough to get Evans (and Bradley), but teams aren’t that eager to give up first round picks anymore. The Nuggets held onto Kenneth Faried, although that’s almost certainly because they couldn’t find any suitors for him. The Hornets didn’t trade Kemba Walker after rumors swirled about a potential trade earlier in the week, but I guess that’s not as surprising as the others. Boston, Toronto, and Washington, Cleveland’s chief competition in the Eastern Conference, stood pat as the Cavs improved. I don’t think a move was ever in store for the Raptors, but the Wizards need bench help and the Celtics were apparently trying to trade Marcus Smart, another player who’s set to be a restricted free agent, so I’m a little surprise that neither of those teams did anything at the deadline.

With the deadline in the rearview mirror, the focus immediately shifts to the buyout market. The Celtics signed Greg Monroe to a deal earlier this week, and more deals will follow. Buyout deals aren’t as exciting as trades, but players like Marco Belinelli and Joe Johnson can make a real impact. The least surprising news of the day was that Tom Thibodeau’s Wolves (Bulls North, as I call them) are planning to sign Derrick Rose if (when) he clears waivers. That should be fun.

In the end, the deadline didn’t change a whole lot, and that was always going to be the case. The Warriors, lethargic regular season and all, are the heavy favorites to repeat. The Rockets are their strongest competition, and the Cavs are the favorites in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland’s team got better and their chemistry probably did too, but I wouldn’t have picked against the Cavaliers in the East even with their old team. I’m excited to see how their new rotation looks, although we’ll really have to wait until Kevin Love gets back to have the full picture. And fingers crossed that Isaiah Thomas can get back on track in LA and set himself up for a big new contract. I’m not holding my breath, though.

Most years, the week leading up to the Super Bowl isn’t particularly exciting. There are a lot of silly storylines and not much else. The week comes during the dog days of the basketball season, not quite close enough to the trade deadline to expect a ton of trades. It’s around the NHL All-Star break. So I wasn’t expecting many fireworks this week. I was wrong. Blake Griffin was traded in a move I wrote about on Monday. And since then, three more major things have happened. John Wall and Kevin Love became the second and third All-Stars to suffer significant injuries in the weeks leading up to the All-Star break. Neither injury is as bad or heartbreaking as DeMarcus Cousins’s torn Achilles’, but both Love and Wall are set to miss around two months. The Wall injury is more concerning, both because of the nature of the injury and because the Wizards rely on him more than the Cavs do Love. Wall’s undergoing a knee scope, which is significant because he’s been hampered by knee injuries for most of his career. He had surgeries performed on both of his knees in May of 2016, and he missed 11 games earlier this year due to knee problems. He hasn’t been as good this year as he was in his career year last season, but he’s still averaging 19.4 points and 9.3 assists per game. The Wizards are +5.3 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court and -2.0 when he’s off it (as usual, I’m using Cleaning the Glass for these stats because they filter out garbage time). Without Wall, Bradley Beal will naturally take on a bigger role, much like he did earlier in the season. It’s not Beal I’m worried about, although the huge minutes he’s getting does make me feel a bit queasy given his injury history. It’s the fact that the Wizards are a shallow team that now have to rely more heavily upon below average players like Tomas Satoransky, Jodie Meeks, and Mike Scott. The only healthy point guard on their roster is Tim Frazier, a 6’1″ player who’s well below average at just about everything. To make matters worse, the Wizards’ upcoming schedule is very tough. Just four of their next 21 games come against non-playoff teams (going by the current standings), and three of those four games are on the road. Washington isn’t going to be favored very often over the next few months. The Wizards currently sit at 28-22, in a cluster of teams sitting between fourth and seventh in the Eastern Conference. But they’re just three games up on the eight seed and 4.5 up on the Pistons, who are on the outside looking in and just acquired Blake Griffin. I think it’s possible that Washington could fall out of the playoffs entirely, especially if Wall’s return from injury is delayed.

As for the Cavs, there’s no doubt that the Love injury, a broken hand, hurts. He’s their second leading scorer and easily the best rebounder on a team that doesn’t have many bigs. But I have a feeling that they’ll be able to figure things out. They currently sit at 30-20, third in the East, and they still have LeBron James. Love’s a good offensive player, but Cleveland has a pretty seamless offensive replacement in Channing Frye, who has scored 36 points in 42 minutes over two games since Love went down after putting up 34 points in the first 12 January games. And maybe this injury will allow Isaiah Thomas to assert himself on offense and allow Cleveland to fortify things a little bit on the defensive end. This injury certainly doesn’t make them better, but it’s not the gut punch that the loss of Wall is for Washington.

Over in the NFL, the Redskins and Chiefs mercifully hijacked Super Bowl week by making a trade that certainly surprised me (granted, any NFL trade in January would have surprised me). Kansas City sent Alex Smith, who had one year left on his contract, to Washington for cornerback Kendall Fuller and a third round pick. For the Chiefs, it’s a trade that makes complete sense. Smith became a near lock to be dealt this offseason as soon as Kansas City traded up to draft Pat Mahomes in the first round of last year’s draft. When Mahomes showed his potential in his lone start, the likelihood of a trade increased even further. That’s not to take anything away from Smith; he’s a good quarterback who is coming off of a career season (4,042 yards and a 26/5 TD/INT ratio). But the Chiefs put all of the eggs in the Mahomes basket, so this is a move they had to make. The fact that they’re coming off of a major choke against the Titans in the playoff certainly makes moving Smith easier to stomach. The return of Fuller and a third isn’t overwhelming in a league with a handful of teams desperate for competent quarterback play, but it’s good enough. Fuller was terrible in his rookie year in Washington but excellent last season; as the Redskins’ slot corner, he had a PFF grade of 90.0, sixth among all cornerbacks in football. I expect the Chiefs to try to move him back outside to take care of the side of the field not covered by Marcus Peters. That side has been a problem for Kansas City, as evidenced by their late-season signing of Darrelle Revis, a move that did not pay off for the Chiefs. If Fuller can play anywhere near as well in KC as he did last year in Washington, he’ll end up being the far bigger coup than the third round pick that’s accompanying him to Kansas City. Even if he ends up just being a decent corner, it’s a fine trade for the Chiefs to make. Everything comes down to Mahomes, and that would have been true no matter what the Chiefs got in return for Smith.

As for the Redskins, this is a head-scratcher. They’ve handled their quarterback situation terribly ever since selecting Robert Griffin and Kirk Cousins in the same draft. In Cousins, they had a quarterback who is at least as good as Smith (I’d argue better) and four years younger. But they’ve failed on multiple occasions to lock Cousins up to a long-term deal, instead franchising him not once but twice. Last summer, the Redskins not only gave him a laughably bad offer but also publicly threw him under the bus, culminating in a press conference during with their executives repeatedly called him “Curt.” The four year extension the Redskins are giving Smith is worth $23.5 million per year and will net the QB $71 million in guaranteed money. Cousins will undoubtedly get more, but that’s because he’s younger and better. The Redskins could have locked him up at any time over the past few years. The fact that they’re letting a franchise quarterback walk in free agency and instead traded for a quarterback who’s known for being about average and who will start his new contract at 34-years-old is bad. The fact that they also had to sacrifice a young cornerback who was arguably their best defensive player this year and a third round pick to do so is worse.

I’ll tell you this much: the Kirk Cousins free agency experience is going to be fun. He’s going to have a lot of suitors, and he’s going to make a lot of money. The Broncos, Vikings, Jets, Cardinals, Browns, and Bills come to mind as teams that would be willing to spend an absurd amount of money for Cousins. Good for him!

Breaking Down the Blake Griffin Trade

Posted: 01/29/2018 by levcohen in Basketball

There have been rumors swirling about the Clippers shopping their two star big men for years now, but I must say that this Blake Griffin trade shocked me. Recently, it had been DeAndre Jordan, not Griffin, dominating most of the trade buzz. And the Clippers, winners of 14 of 20, are surging and have closed to within a game of a playoff spot, with one team ahead of them (New Orleans) recently losing a star player to a season-ending injury. It thus would have made sense for the Clippers, a team that has rarely had star, marketable players who are perfect for LA, to hold onto at least Griffin and perhaps both of their big men. Instead, news broke tonight that they had traded Griffin to the Pistons for Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, a first round pick that will likely convey this year (it’s just top-4 protected), and a second round pick. It’s a stunning trade (you can see how much it surprised Griffin), one made between two teams lingering in their respective playoff races. I’m going to break down the trade from both angles, starting with the Clippers.

For the Clippers, this looks like an attempt to jumpstart a rebuild while remaining competitive in the short-term. It can be dangerous to try to thread that needle. The first round pick is valuable, especially since the Pistons are probably unlikely to make the playoffs even after this trade. It’s likely to end up in the 10-14 range in a draft that seems about average after the top few picks. That’s a good start. But there are first round picks involved in most trades for star players. The interesting part of the trade is that the Clippers are also getting two of Detroit’s starters in this trade. Harris is having a career season, averaging 18 points per game on 45/41/85 shooting. But when I wrote about the Pistons on January 11th (more on that soon), he was shooting 44% from the beyond the arc and I said that I expected some regression given that he was a career 33% shooter from three before this season. In eight games since, he’s 12-46 from beyond the arc (26.1%). For the season, he’s used his strong iso game and his shooting to make a huge positive impact to Detroit’s offense — they’re +8.2 points per 100 possessions offensively with him on the floor. But he’s given most of that back on defense (they’re giving up 7.8 more points per 100 possessions defensively with him on the floor), meaning that he’s been about a net average player. Harris is certainly a solid starter, and he’s making a reasonable $16 million this year and $14.8 million next year before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

The other starter that the Clippers are getting is Avery Bradley. I’ve always been a fan of Bradley’s, but his defensive reputation is not backed up by the stats (as I touched on when I wrote about the Pistons). For the third straight year, Bradley’s team has been significantly worse defensively when he’s been on the floor. As good as he is in terms of on-ball defense, he can’t always compensate for his lack of height (he’s a 6’2″ shooting guard) and thus becomes a liability on the glass and on switches. And he’s a pretty inefficient offensive player, providing solid three point numbers but not much else. He’s not much of a playmaker, and he’s shooting just 55% at the rim, putting him in the 18th percentile of wings. He’s also an unrestricted free agent after this year, so it remains to be seen whether the Clippers are making this move in order to keep Bradley or to open up cap space for free agency.

Then there’s Boban, the 7’3″ Serb with great touch around the basket. Marjanovic is averaging 24.8 points and 12 rebounds per 36 minutes this year, and that’s not a fluke; in his career, he’s putting up 22.4 and 14.1 per 36. The problem, of course, is that he’s so immobile and such a defensive liability that he plays just nine minutes per game, right in line with his career average. The real reason he’s in the trade is to match contracts, as he’s making $7 million per year both this season and next season.

So the Clippers got those three and a fairly valuable first round pick for their star player. It’s pretty hard to believe that they made this trade thinking that they’d improve this season. Griffin is far better than anyone they’re getting back, and they’re also still looking to trade Lou Williams and DeAndre Jordan, with a plan to “focus on young players and draft picks while competing for a playoff spot this season,” according to ESPN sources. I can see one other reason that the Clippers made this trade: they wanted to clear cap space before this year’s free agency. Bradley’s coming off the books, and they no longer have Griffin’s $30 million + contract to worry about, making it more plausible that they can clear max cap space for a top tier free agent. The problem is: what top tier free agent would want to come to a Clippers team without Griffin, who was far and away the team’s top recruiting tool? I suspect the answer will be nobody, which means that the Clippers will likely be in purgatory after this season if they continue to try to straddle contention and a full rebuild. That’s why I’m not all that fond of this trade from LA’s point of view. I don’t hate it, because Griffin has a huge contract and this Clippers team was going nowhere this season. And the pick, which will likely end up in the late lottery, is a boon for the Clippers. But I don’t like the Harris/Bradley/Marjanovic piece of the trade, and I wonder if the Clips may put Harris and Bradley back on the blog in order to see if they can retain more young players and picks. The bottom line is that I don’t like the strategy of trying to contend and rebuild at the same time, but this could end up being a good trade for the Clippers if they continue to jettison establish players for future assets.

It was clear that the Pistons were going nowhere fast. In the eight games between when I wrote that I was confused by Detroit’s success and this trade, Detroit went 0-8. They slipped out of the playoffs and are now three games out of the eight seed. The season was slipping away, and they acted. Pairing Griffin with Andre Drummond makes a lot of sense, because the Pistons already know that Griffin can work next to a springy big who is most comfortable around the basket. Drummond is a much better passer than DeAndre Jordan is, and Griffin and Drummond will form one of the best passing big men duos in the NBA. Griffin ranks in the 99th percentile of bigs in terms of assist percentage, while Drummond’s in the 91st percentile. I definitely think those two will be good together. The problem is that the rest of the Pistons’ roster is pretty barren. With Reggie Jackson still out indefinitely, Ish Smith will remain the starting point guard. And without Bradley, the already thin corps of wings gets even thinner. The Pistons are going to need at least two of Reggie Bullock, Stanley Johnson, Luke Kennard, and Langston Galloway to provide consistent, solid minutes. Bullock’s had a few nice games, but none of those four players have been better than replacement level throughout their careers. That’s a very bad sign. Another bad sign is the fact that the Pistons will have very little cap space over the next few years. Even in 2019-20, they’re committed to paying Griffin $34.5 million, Drummond $27 million, and Jackson $18 million. That’s Detroit’s Big Three for the foreseeable, and I’m not sure it’s going to be good enough to compete with other teams’ nuclei (in fact, I’m sure it won’t be good enough). Griffin is a great player, but he’s under contract for at least three more years at massive cap hits and then has a player option for $39 million going into the 2021-22 season. He’s a 6’10” player who has missed 16 games already this season, 21 last year, 47 the year before, and 15 the year before that. It’s very dangerous to put all your eggs in that basket. And yet, I don’t mind that the Pistons are doing it. Griffin’s averaging 22.4/7.9/5.4. He’s not the leaper he once was, but he’s still a great offensive player, and the advanced stats back that up. It would have been tough for the Pistons to get a player that good in free agency, so they saw their chance now and took it. I think the odds are pretty high that this move won’t pan out, but I still think it’s a nice roll of the dice. I’m intrigued to see how well Drummond and Griffin can play together.

Here’s hoping we see more big deals get completed before the February 8th trade deadline.

Every year at about this time, there’s a rush to panic about the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are inevitably struggling through the dog days of the NBA season. The panic is almost welcomed by the Cavs’ players, who (cough cough LeBron James cough cough) rather than trying to squelch it instead intentionally stoke the fire. This year is slightly different because it is the second Cavs freakout of the season; the first came after a 5-7 start, which was immediately followed by an 18-1 stretch. Since then, though, the Cavs are 4-11, which has brought about Freakout #2. In the past week, multiple Cavs stars (we can all guess who those stars are, especially since the Cavs don’t have that many stars) have vented to the media about the roster’s problems, expressing doubt that the problems — among them a lack of defense and an aging roster — could be solved simply through patience and an eventual flip of a switch. When asked about whether coach Ty Lue should be fired, LeBron voiced his support, albeit unconvincingly. After an embarrassing home loss to the Thunder (OKC put up 148), the Cavs held a players-only meeting, during which everyone yelled at Kevin Love for leaving the previous game due to illness. Then, the team looked lost against a shorthanded San Antonio team, losing its sixth game in seven (and the only win was a one point victory over the Magic in a game that the Cavs led by 20 at halftime). Everyone is angry at everyone else. LeBron is being passive aggressive. Lue is on the hot seat and is about to change the starting lineup (but he won’t tell us how). The team is too old. Pretty scary stuff, right? Well, that’s why a lot of people are already writing this team off barring a big move at the trade deadline. But then there’s the fact that we’ve seen all of this before. The Cavs have struggled during the regular season in past years, particularly defensively. They’ve been old for years. LeBron has been passive aggressive for years. Other players have blamed Kevin Love for stuff before. Ty Lue has been on the hot seat before. The defense has been pretty bad in past regular seasons, too. And yet, the Cavs have made the Finals three straight times, and LeBron has made the Finals seven straight times (that’s ridiculous, by the way). That’s why a lot of people are writing off this stretch as just another short Cleveland swoon and saying that this team is still a legitimate title contender. The truth is somewhere in between. This team has problems that are more severe and less fixable than in past years, but they’re still the odds-on favorites to win the Eastern Conference.

I said above that the Cavs have had defensive issues in the past. But those issues have generally led to Cleveland being a mediocre defense rather than a terrible one. They’ve ranked between 10th and 22nd in regular season defensive net rating over the last three years and have always improved markedly in the playoffs, thanks largely to more effort from LeBron. This year, they’re giving up 109.9 points per 100 possessions, which makes them the second-worst defense in the league. Per Cleaning the Glass, which removes garbage time stats (and is therefore preferable), the Cavs are giving up 112 points per 100 possessions, putting them in a tie for last with the Sacramento Kings. That’s not good, and it’s not something that can be fully corrected without major personnel changes. Can the Cavs improve defensively? Sure. The hole is so big that, even if the defense improves about as much as it did the last few years, it will still be a liability. And it makes sense. Somehow, the Cavs traded Kyrie Irving this offseason and still managed to get worse defensively. Isaiah Thomas, bless his soul, was a poor defender before being hampered by a hip injury. The Cavs are giving up 120.9 points per 100 possessions (per Cleaning the Glass) when he’s been on the floor, and it’s no coincidence that their swoon has come since he returned from injury. Dwyane Wade was once a good defender but is no longer one. Neither is Derrick Rose. Jae Crowder has been a massive disappointment on both sides of the ball for the Cavs. Those were the four big additions Cleveland made this offseason in order to replace the void left by Irving. Apparently, the Cavs had the chance to get both Paul George and Eric Bledsoe in a three-team trade for Irving. If that offer was really on the table, I can’t believe they didn’t take it. Those two are exactly what Cleveland needs right now — very good two-way players.

I think it’s safe to say now that the Kyrie trade the Cavs ended up making was not a good move, especially in the short-term. It remains to be seen what the Brooklyn first round pick they got in that trade turns into, but Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder is a pitiful return for a dominant scorer like Irving. Cleveland’s still good offensively — it’s hard not to be when you surround LeBron with shooting — but they’re not as good, and they certainly don’t have the same ceiling. Kevin Love was expected to become a bigger part of the offense, but his numbers have stayed stagnant — they’re very good but not star-level (18.4 points per game, 40% shooting from three). Thomas has looked rusty-at-best since returning, and he’s shooting 39% from the floor and 28% from three. Aside from that, the Cavs have a bunch of role players. And it’s hard to get too excited about a terrible defensive team whose main offensive playmakers are LeBron James and a sub-100% Isaiah Thomas. There’s a reason the Cavs have a negative net rating. Bizarrely, Cleveland has actually been worse with James on the court than without him. In his first three seasons of his second stint with the Cavs, James placed in the 99th, 98th, and 98th percentile in terms of on/off difference. This year, he’s in the 37th percentile, which is yet another data point that hints that something more serious is wrong this year.

All of this means that the Cavs are probably less of a threat to Golden State than they were last year, when they lost in five games. But I still think they should be considered the odds-on favorites to win the Eastern Conference for two simple reasons. The first is that they have LeBron James. And as long as LeBron James is healthy (he never gets hurt) and effective (he always is), his team will be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs. LeBron is quietly having one of his better statistical seasons. He’s shooting 55% from the floor (highest since his last Miami season) and 36% from three. He’s averaging 26.8 points (most since his last Miami season), 7.9 rebounds, and 8.6 assists per game. He’s chipped in with 1.1 blocks (most since 08-09) and 1.6 steals (most since 14-15). It hasn’t led to as much winning as in the past, but LeBron gets the benefit of the doubt at this point. The second reason that they’re still clear East favorites is that they don’t have much competition. Despite all their troubles, they sit in third in the East, and nobody below them has more than a slim chance to make a run deep in the playoffs. Only two teams in the East have point differentials of greater than +1.3, and that’s the two teams ahead of the Cavs in the standings. And I just don’t trust the Celtics or Raptors, at least not yet. I don’t think Boston is good enough offensively (they rank 17th in offensive net rating and fall off a cliff when Kyrie Irving is out). And while the Raptors have been by far the most dominant team in the East this year, they have a history of playing rather poorly in the playoffs against the Cavs. They’ve played in each of the last two postseasons, and the Cavs are 8-2 and have a point differential of +15.4. This Toronto roster is very similar to last season’s, so at the very least the Cavs have a very good chance to beat the Raptors. Does Cleveland have a great team? No. But they have LeBron and a roster that’s likely to improve going forward, and that’s enough to make them the favorites in the East.

The Cavs are rumored to be interested in trading for Kings’ guard George Hill, which makes sense. Hill would help the defense and is also shooting 45% from three this year. Cleveland will be in the market for players who get bought out by other teams and are looking to play for a contender. And the Cavs still have two first round picks, including the valuable Brooklyn pick. The elephant in the room, of course, is LeBron James’s status as a free agent after this year. According to Brian Windhorst, the main reason the Bledsoe+George for Irving trade fell through was that Dan Gilbert sought (and didn’t get) a promise from LeBron that he’d stay in Cleveland beyond this season. At the very least, James is keeping his options open, which means that Cleveland may be less than eager to trade future assets for veteran players. That may mean no major trades, but the Cavs will still surely improve their roster, starting with the likely trade for Hill. So is it time for Cavs’ fans to panic? Yes and no. The struggles are real and probably permanent, but they may not be enough to derail the Cavs’ Finals chances.

I am Confused by the Detroit Pistons

Posted: 01/11/2018 by levcohen in Basketball

The Detroit Pistons have been a decent — good, even — basketball team so far this season. They’re 22-18 and have a +.9 point differential. Their net rating ranks them 14th in the NBA. Yes, they’ve cooled off considerably in their last 20 games (8-12 after a 14-6 start), but they’re gradually turning that around (5-4 in their last nine, including wins over Houston and San Antonio). By all appearances, they are good enough to make the playoffs. And yet… I still have a lingering feeling that this is a fluke, that the Pistons will struggle down the stretch and fall out of the playoff hunt.

The main reason I feel this way is simple: I just don’t think the team has that much talent. The best player on the team is probably Andre Drummond. And I actually recognize that Andre Drummond has made huge improvements to his game this year. He’s always been an excellent rebounder (15 boards per game this year, 25.8% rebound rate) and rim-runner. He’s also been an active, solid (albeit overrated) defender, partly because of his defensive rebounding. But this year he’s improved a lot in two important areas: playmaking and free throw shooting. Before this season, Drummond’s career high in assists per game came last year, at 1.1 per game. His 5.9% assist rate put him in the 30th percentile of all bigs (per Cleaning the Glass). This year, as his ball-handling responsibilities have increased, so have his assists. He’s averaging 3.8 assists per game, good for a 17.9% assist rate that puts him in the 91st percentile of big men. He’s also turning the ball over more, but this has been easily his best season in terms of assist-to-turnover ratio. As for free throws, Drummond was ridiculed (rightfully) for being a sub-40% free throw shooter in his career prior to this season. This year, though, he’s up to a whopping 62%. It’s still not great, but it’s not awful, which is a huge improvement. But Drummond’s still a very flawed offensive player, a guy who can’t really be counted on to be the best player on a good team. He has the shot selection of a 60+% shooter from the field, but he’s shooting under 54%. He’s in the 29th percentile among bigs in terms of accuracy at the rim, and he’s shooting 27% from midrange (where about a quarter of his shots come from).

Then there’s Tobias Harris, the team’s leading scorer at 18.5 points per game. Harris has always been a decent but streaky shooter. He’s taking more shots than ever this year, but not by much. The big difference in his game have been the three pointers. Before this year, Harris was a career 33% three point shooter, and a guy who relied much more on his midrange game than on threes. This season, he’s transformed into an elite (44%) shooter who takes 37% of his shots from beyond the arc (28% last year). The change in focus may be real, and I have no doubt that Harris is better than a 33% three point shooter. He has a nice looking stroke and has always been a good free throw shooter, so it makes sense that there’s been some improvement from beyond the arc. But is he really an elite shooter? I don’t buy it. And if he isn’t, he’ll remain a perfectly useful offensive player, but one who doesn’t get to the line enough or make enough plays for others to be considered a real difference-maker offensively.

So some of the improvement has come thanks to improvement (the sustainability of which is debatable) from Drummond and Harris. Most of the Pistons — including Drummond, Harris, and the always-overrated Reggie Jackson — are holdovers from the team that went 37-45 last year. For those trying to explain the improved record (as I am right now, I guess), it makes sense to point to the one major move the Pistons made last off-season. No, I don’t mean letting Kentavious Caldwell-Pope walk in free agency, because while KCP is a perfectly fine player, I don’t think he’s important enough to change much record-wise. I’m talking about the trade of Marcus Morris (who started 79 games and averaged 14 points per game last season) for Avery Bradley (14.6 points per game this year). Bradley’s always been an interesting player, because his defensive reputation is backed up by the eye test but not by the stats. Bradley ranks 87th among 105 shooting guards in ESPN’s Real Plus Minus, and he’s just 75th in terms of Defensive Real Plus Minus. His dRPM is eerily similar to what it was last season and the year before. The Pistons have been significantly better defensively when he’s not on the court, and his net rating is -4.7, second-worst on the team behind the immobile (to say the least) Boban Marjanovic. If that’s not damning enough, think about the fact that the Celtics have improved defensively without Bradley. To be fair, that probably can be attributed to any number of changes the Celts made this offseason, but at the very least Boston hasn’t really missed Bradley’s supposedly stellar defense. In past years, it’s been easy to point to Bradley’s rebounding deficiencies as the main reason that his defensive numbers were so bad. The Celtics were understandably much worse at preventing offensive rebounds when their undersized two guard was on the court. But this year, the Pistons have actually been about as good at defensive rebounding with Bradley on the floor as they have been without him. Unlike in past years, Bradley’s team has actually allowed a higher effective field goal % with him on the court than with him off it. And his backups are Luke Kennard and Langston Galloway, who aren’t exactly defensive stalwarts themselves. Perhaps Avery Bradley is not that great of a basketball player. He’s a solid three point shooter, but he’s a poor playmaker and rebounder and probably not as great defensively as we thought. I don’t think he’s helping this team very much.

Sometimes, lineups that seem like they shouldn’t work just do. After 40 games of those lineups working, I’m generally willing to accept that, while they may be playing over their heads, the five players may be greater together than the sum of their parts. None of this is the case for the Pistons, because their starting lineup DOESN’T WORK. This will be a moot point for a while because Reggie Jackson is out for at least another month due to injury, but it was important before and will be again once Jackson comes back. The lineup of Jackson, Bradley, Stanley Johnson (who’s being shopped in trades), Harris, and Drummond is being outscored by 7.4 points per 100 possessions in the 396 minutes it has been together on the court. The only other lineup in basketball that has played as many minutes this season and has been as bad is Kris Dunn, Justin Holiday, Denzel Valentine, Lauri Markkanen, and Robin Lopez in Chicago. This lineup, which has played four times more minutes than any other Detroit lineup, is in the fourth percentile defensively. And the Pistons actually have pretty solid overall defensive numbers! By the way, the lineup with backup point guard Ish Smith in place of Jackson has been far, far worse in limited time. And sub in Reggie Bullock for Stanley Johnson (the Pistons made this change a while back) and you get the same results. All four lineups (Bradley, Harris, and Drummond with all combinations of Jackson, Smith, Bullock, and Johnson) have been train wrecks, to the point that the first lineup’s -7.4 points per 100 possessions mark is actually the best.

The fact that the starting lineup is ineffective is obviously not good. It’s also not new for the Pistons. Last year, the starting lineup was the reason the Pistons finished well outside of the playoff picture. The starting lineup Reggie, KCP, Harris, Marcus Morris, and Drummond finished with a -12.3 points per 100 possessions mark. Sub in Smith for Jackson (who got injured last season, too) and you get Detroit’s most-used lineup last season, owner of a stellar -7.1 points per 100 possessions mark. This is not a fluke. It’s a case where five players who probably shouldn’t be that great together aren’t, and are actually even worse than they should be.

Detroit’s net rating has been carried by the bench players. There’s no single bench lineup that has played many lineups, but leading the team in net rating are noted superstars Dwight Buycks (+11.8, albeit in only eight games), Langston Galloway (+9.3), Henry Ellenson (+6.9), and Luke Kennard (+6.6). Seven Pistons average 20+ minutes per game, and those seven are all among the eight players with negative net ratings (poor Boban is the eighth). I would say this is probably bad news for the Pistons, because I am of the opinion that Buycks, Galloway, Ellenson, and Kennard are not actually good enough players to keep carrying the team.

The bottom line is that the Detroit Pistons are a team that doesn’t do that much well. They’re a below-average offensive team without any star players. Their defense has been solid but isn’t good enough to carry the team. The value added from the bench has been found money, but I fear that it’s unsustainable. I’ll grant that Drummond is a better player now than he was last season, but I just don’t think there’s enough here to sustain a 45 win pace.

When Rudy Gobert first got hurt, I basically wrote them off as playoff contenders. They were 5-7 and clearly struggling to replace the scoring void left by the departures of Gordon Hayward and, to a lesser extent, George Hill. In the stacked (or not so stacked, as we’ve found out) Western Conference, I didn’t think the Jazz would be able to stay close enough to the playoffs to get back into the race when Gobert returned. Well, he missed 11 games, and the Jazz went 7-4 in those games. You may be thinking: fine, that looks nice, but it’s a super small sample size. What if the Jazz just needed some time to figure things out and would have gone on this run even had Gobert been healthy? Well, in Gobert’s five games back on the court, the Jazz went 1-4. Then he got hurt again, playing just two minutes in Boston in a surprising 107-95 win. The Jazz are now 8-5 in games that Gobert’s missed (counting the Boston game as a miss) and 6-11 in the games he’s played. Do the advanced stats bear out that they’ve improved without him? If so, why? Can they keep it up? The last question is important because Gobert will likely miss at least another three weeks with a PCL sprain. We’ll learn a lot more about how real this is and about whether the Jazz are playoff contenders very soon.

First of all, it’s clear from Gobert’s counting numbers that he hasn’t been quite the same player this year. He’s averaging 11.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per game, down from 14 and 12.8 last season. His block numbers, by the way, have stayed almost identical on a per-minute basis. Given that he’s just 25-years-old, it seems far more likely that the injuries have hindered him than that he’s suddenly started declining. The more advanced individual numbers suggest that he may be just a shade worse this year, but certainly nowhere near bad enough to tank a lineup. His usage rate is almost exactly the same as it was last year. So is his assist rate. He’s been somewhat less efficient, but still rates in the 79th percentile among big men in terms of points per shot attempt (including free throws as attempts) per Cleaning the Glass. His rebounding rate is lower but still very good, and he’s still an elite shot blocker. He also continues to draw fouls at an elite rate. Last year, that portfolio was enough to make Gobert an unbelievably effective center. He had a +8.1 net rating last year. When he was on the court, the Jazz scored 108.7 points per 100 possessions and allowed 100.6. When he was off it, they scored 104.6 and allowed 107.5. In terms of team success when he was on the court versus when he was off it, Gobert was in the 98th percentile among big men. This year, it’s been a very different story. Gobert has a -4.6 net rating. When he’s been on the court, the Jazz have scored just 96.5 points per 100 possessions and allowed 101.1. When he’s been off it, they’ve scored 110.9 and allowed 103.1. In other words, the Jazz have been a top-five offense and a top-five defense when he’s been off the court. They’re still a top-10 defense when he’s on the court but are by far the worst offense in the league (as things stand, the Kings rank 30th in points per 100 possessions at 100.5).

A lot of this is probably down to bad luck. I think the fact that the Jazz have actually been better defensively without Gobert is a total fluke. Not only is his block rate the same but he’s also been just as menacing as ever (hence the nickname “Stifle Tower”). He’s always been elite at keeping teams from finishing at the rim and especially at keeping teams from attempting shots at the rim. That hasn’t changed. Opponents shoot at the rim just 30.4% of the time when he’s on the court against 35.5% when he’s off. That differential puts Gobert in the 96th percentile (all of this is courtesy of Cleaning the Glass). But teams are shooting 39.2% from three against the Jazz when Gobert’s been on the floor. Excluding end-of-quarter heaves and garbage time, that mark would rank fifth in the league. But the real reason Gobert’s defensive numbers don’t look great is that the Jazz have been caught in transition way more than usual with him on the floor. His numbers in the halfcourt are great — the Jazz give up just 86.9 points per 100 halfcourt possessions when he’s been on the court, 94.5 when he’s been off. Gobert has clearly continued to make an impact there. But a full 17.9% of Gobert’s defensive possessions have come in transition. That puts him in the fifth percentile in the NBA. The difference between his number and the team’s when he’s been off the court (13.2%) is huge. Opposing teams have also been surprisingly effective in transition with Gobert on the court, but I’m more willing to attribute that to random variance connected to a guy who’s played just 17 games.

You know what leads to a lot of fastbreaks? Bad offense, be it bad shots or turnovers. And Rudy Gobert has turned the ball over A LOT this year. He’s averaging 1.9 turnovers per game, which is a lot for a center and particularly a center who doesn’t handle the ball all that much. The Jazz have turned the ball over 18.2% of the time with him in the game and just 14.3% without him. That’s bad offense. Also bad offense: the fact that the team has shot just 33.2% from three with Gobert on the floor. Utah’s eFG% (accounting for the difference between twos and threes) is 48.7% when he’s on the floor and 55.4% when he’s off. To put that in perspective, the Bulls are last in the NBA with a 48.7% eFG. That is, er, not good.

A lot of it has to be luck. There’s no way the Jazz can be a top-three team with Gobert off the court and a bottom-five team with him on it. Period. But I do think the Jazz should be concerned. Most of Gobert’s success last year came with Hayward beside him. The duo played 2,165 minutes together (easily the most that any Jazz duo played together) and fit beautifully. Gobert also fit well on both ends with point guard George Hill, whose departure was quieter than Hayward’s but who was a very valuable piece of the offensive puzzle. This year’s Jazz are less able to play around Gobert. It’s not unworkable by any stretch. But put Gobert and Ricky Rubio on the court together and you’re going to need three shooters around them. If you throw Derrick Favors in too, you’re going to have real problems. That’s been born out. The Jazz have averaged just 89.3 points per 100 possessions when the trio of Favors-Rubio-Gobert has been on the floor. That’s beyond atrocious. The question about whether Gobert and Favors can play effectively together has been a longstanding one. I’ve generally thought that the answer is no, but last season especially the numbers didn’t bear that out, although Favors missed a lot of time due to injury. I’m positive that you can’t play Gobert, Favors, and a non-shooting guard together. And while Rubio’s shooting more this year, he’s not shooting better (29% from three).

Gobert is definitely still a cornerstone for this team. The point of this post is not to say otherwise. But I do think it’s fair to start thinking about what time of team the Jazz are building around him. Rookie sensation Donovan Mitchell is a great fit. He’s a high usage guard who can create off the dribble, stretch the floor, and feed Gobert lobs. It’s also nice to have a sweet-shooting 25-year-old guard like Rodney Hood, although the Jazz would probably feel more comfortable if he weren’t option #1 or #2 every night. A lineup with Mitchell, Hood, Rubio, Joe Ingles (who is very good, by the way. He’s a 46% three point shooter who also averages 4.2 assists and plays solid defense), and Gobert is intriguing offensively. That lineup has played a grand total of nine minutes together this season, but it has a +11.4 net rating in those nine minutes! I do think that the Jazz can make the playoffs this year. It helps that the West is weaker than I expected (thanks largely to OKC’s failings and injuries to Memphis and the Clippers), but I also just like the talent on this team. In the long-term, though, the Jazz need to do some shuffling, and I’m sure they know that. Mitchell was a great get for them and is a potential star player. You can build a team around Mitchell and Gobert, with Hood, Ingles, and maybe even a few other players on this team as good role players. It remains to be seen where — if, even — Dante Exum fits into this. There were whispers about Exum being set for a breakout season before he hurt his shoulder. His career has been marred by injuries, but he’s a 22-year-old ex-#5 overall pick, so he will get his chances. I know the Jazz just signed Rubio, but I would be looking to trade him if I were them. I just don’t think he adds enough to make that shooting playable with Gobert. And Favors would be a great trade chip if that type of player still had much value in the NBA. In the end, the Jazz want what a lot of teams want: a stretch four who can guard multiple positions and knock down threes. There’s a reason the new-age power forward has become such an important position.

The bottom line is that the Jazz have been much better without Gobert on the floor this year. A lot of that is luck, some of it is slightly worse play from Gobert, and some of it is fit issues with Favors and Rubio in particular. I hope the Jazz can continue to play well without their big man before finding a way to make all the pieces fit when he returns. I want this team to make the playoffs.