The MLB trade deadline is tomorrow, and over the last few days there have been a flurry of minor trades, most of which have been rentals for relief pitchers or infielders. As expected, the Orioles and Royals have continued to sell, with Baltimore reliever Brad Brach going to Atlanta and longtime power-hitting Kansas City third baseman Mike Moustakas joining Joakim Soria (another pre-deadline acquisition) in Milwaukee. The Mets and Twins dealt infielders Asdrubal Cabrera and Eduardo Escobar — both solid if unspectacular players — to Philadelphia and Arizona respectively. The Astros got a moderate boost to their bullpen with the acquisition of Twins’ reliever Ryan Pressly. None of these moves were as exciting as the Manny Machado trade or even the J.A. Happ or Cole Hamels deals, but all of them certainly help contending teams on the margins and are thus worth mentioning. Here are some other players who could move before tomorrow’s deadline:
Non-relievers:
Chris Archer, SP TB: There have been trade rumors about Chris Archer for as long as he’s been in the big leagues. That’s what it’s like to be a starting pitcher for the Tampa Bay Rays, I guess. If the Rays thought they were contending before last weekend (and I don’t think they did), three straight losses at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles surely changed that. Archer, now 29-years-old, has ace-level stuff and is under team control through 2021 at a cheap $8 million per year. He has a 4.31 ERA this year, but that’s misleading, as his BABIP is a career high .343 and his FIP tells us he’s pitching well enough to have a mid-3s ERA. The Rays will surely ask for a lot, and they’ll likely get it. The fact that he’s under cheap team control for three more years means a lot more teams will be in the mix than have been for these rentals. Case-in-point: according to Jon Heyman, the 42-66 Padres are considered the favorites to land Archer. Their big-money signing of Eric Hosmer last offseason indicated that San Diego thinks they’re fairly close to contention. A trade for Archer would be another sign that they intend to make a playoff push next season. As for Tampa Bay, now is clearly the time to trade Archer. They’re not going anywhere this season, and Archer’s nearly 30 and has four straight 30+ start seasons under his belt.
Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF DET: There hasn’t been that much buzz about Castellanos, which I find surprising because I think he’s exactly the type of player I’d be targeting if I were a contending team. He’s a 26-year-old who’s under team control through next year, and he’s clearly proven at this point that he’s an above-average hitter. After hitting 26 homers last year and posting a .810 OPS, he’s hitting .292/.346/.496 (all career-highs) in 445 plate appearances this season. What’s the catch? Well, he’s pretty hopeless defensively, as he moved from third base, where he was poor, to right field, where he’s arguably been worse. But for a contending team looking for another bat but trying also to hold onto their top prospects, it’ll be hard to do better than Castellanos. I would probably bite the bullet and play him at third for the offensive upside he gives at a tough position to fill. I’m not sure there’s a perfect fit, but I think there’s a good chance he moves.
Adrian Beltre, 3B TEX: Beltre isn’t the player he used to be, but he’s a better-defending alternative to Castellanos for teams — think Atlanta — looking for a third baseman for the stretch run. Beltre’s numbers this year aren’t great, but he’s a year removed from hitting .312/.383/.532 and has been an extremely consistent hitter throughout his 30s. Now 39, it’s possible that he’s fallen off a cliff, but if I were a contending team I’d take a chance on him, largely because it likely wouldn’t cost much.
Dylan Bundy or Kevin Gausman, SPs BAL: These two Orioles starters are similar in more ways than the fact that they pitch for the same team. They’re both young pitchers who are under cheap team control for two (Gausman) or three (Bundy) years beyond this one. They both have good enough stuff that they were once top prospects, but neither has quite put it together. Gausman has a 4.43 ERA and a 4.58 FIP this year, while Bundy has a 4.53 ERA and a 5.00 FIP. The Orioles won’t give either away, but they may feel that Bundy and Gausman have exhausted their potential in Baltimore and that the team would be better off bottoming out completely and continuing to replenish the farm system. Like Archer, both of these starters would appeal to a variety of contending and non-contending teams.
Zack Wheeler, SP NYM: There’s been a little trade buzz circulating around aces Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, but odds are that if the Mets choose to trade a starting pitcher it’ll be Wheeler. Wheeler was once a top prospect who posted mid-3s ERAs in his first two seasons. But then he missed two full seasons due to injury and struggled in his return to the rotation last year. He then got off to a rocky start to this year and was left with a 5.40 ERA through nine starts. Since then, he’s turned it around, posting a 3.20 ERA and a 3.22 FIP in 11 starts with an average fastball velocity of over 96 miles per hour since the beginning of June. The Mets could look to take advantage of Wheeler’s success by trading the 28-year-old, who becomes a free agent after 2019. He’s coming off of six shutout innings, so it’s tough to imagine his value getting any higher than it is now before his contract runs out. There’s certainly no need for the Mets to trade him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if someone comes in with a good offer and New York decides to sell.
Brian Dozier, 2B MIN: Dozier’s the second rental to make this list. Like Beltre, he’s had a tough season. He’s hitting .226/.304/.404 and has been worth just 1.1 WAR a year after he put up a 5.0 win season and two years after a 6.2 WAR season. But Dozier’s always been a super streaky hitter, and he’s also been better after the all-star break in past years (116 career wRC+, as opposed to 103 before the break). There haven’t been any signs yet that he’s primed to break out of his season-long slump, but the fact that he’s a good defensive second baseman gives him a high floor. With Jason Kipnis having another poor year, the Indians look like a natural fit for Dozier as they look to keep up with Houston, the Yankees, and Boston in terms of talent accumulation.
Curtis Granderson, OF TOR: The market is relatively sparse as far as outfielders are concerned, which could mean that there’s some interest in Granderson, who at this point in his career is clearly a fourth outfielder for a good team. He can play all three outfield positions suitably and has posted a wRC+ between 105 and 114 in four of the last five years (the exception: 2015, 131). So he’s a solid hitter with defensive versatility who’s set to be a free agent after this year. He surely won’t cost much, and he should be on his way out of Toronto by tomorrow.
Relievers:
Craig Stammen and Kirby Yates, SD
Brad Ziegler, MIA
Keona Kela and Jake Diekman, TEX
Roberta Osuna, Tyler Clippard, and John Axford, TOR
Bud Norris, STL
I’m sure I’m missing a few relievers who’ll move at the deadline, but it seems nearly impossible to predict which of these relievers will get moved and which won’t. A handful of them are under cheap team control beyond this year, including Kela and both Padres pitchers. But while all of these pitchers have pitched well this season for non-contending teams, I wouldn’t expect anyone to be willing to pay a huge amount for any of them. The Orioles just traded reliever Brad Brach to the Braves for nothing except some international bonus pool money. Granted, these guys have all been pitching better this season than Brach, but they aren’t good enough to fetch more than the Jays got for Seunghwan Oh, who had a 2.68 ERA and good peripheral stats before getting dealt to the Rockies last week. And Toronto didn’t get much for Oh — just two prospects who weren’t even in Colorado’s top-20 heading into the season. That’s why I don’t think anyone’s getting more than a few B or C level prospects for these relievers.