NCAA Tournament Preview: Midwest

Over the next few days I’ll be previewing each region of the NCAA Tournament. Up now is the Midwest region, which I think is by far the most difficult region. Here’s why: This region has the best team in the country, in #1 overall Louisville. The #2 seed and #3 seed, Duke and Michigan State, both are talented teams with tournament experience and tremendous coaches. All of that makes the two teams two of the handful (of about eight to 10) that has realistic title aspirations. The #4 seed, St. Louis, lost six games all season, went 6-1 against top 25 RPI teams, and won a considerably tougher A-10. The #5 seed, Oklahoma State, have one of the top freshman in the country in point guard Marcus Smart, but they drew a tough matchup in Oregon, the Pac-12 winner who should be seeded as a 7 or 8 seed. The #6 seed, Memphis, is unproven, but you can’t poke too many holes in their 30-4 record. #7 Creighton boasts one of the best players in the country, Doug McDermot. The list goes on and on. Let’s look at each first (I guess it’s now called second) round matchup.

#1 Louisville vs. #16 North Carolina A&T OR Liberty: The winner of the two worst teams in the field will face Louisville. I think the Cardinals win by 25.

#2 Duke vs. #15 Albany: The reason this game will turn into a laughter is not because Duke is invincible, but it’s because Albany just isn’t good.

#3 Michigan State vs. #14 Valparaiso: Take a look at who Michigan State has lost to this year: Miami, Indiana (twice), Minnesota, Ohio State (twice), Connecticut and Michigan. All big time teams. Valpo isn’t that.

#4 St. Louis vs. #13 New Mexico State: When people have been talking about possible shockers, I’ve been surprised at the lack of talk about this game. St. Louis is a lot better as a team, but they have a clear weakness: their rebounding. Their big men like shooting from outside, and New Mexico State is a good rebounding team, so I could see this being a lot closer than most people believe.

#5 Oklahoma State vs. #12 Oregon: Oregon was way under-seeded. We know that. But some people are claiming that Oregon should be favored in this game. I don’t agree. Marcus Smart is, again, one of the best players in the country, but they also have three other players who can put up 20 points on any given night in Markel Brown (leads the team in scoring), LeBryan Nash (seven games with 20+ points), and 6th man Phil Forte (10 points per game in 25 minutes). Oregon is good, but Oklahoma State is better. I’d give them a 60-65% chance to win this, while most people have it around 50-50.

#6 Memphis vs. #11 St. Mary’s OR Middle Tennessee State: The winner of the play-in game is going to have a good chance at getting past Memphis, if only because of how unproven Memphis is. I would predict an upset, especially if St. Mary’s wins, because the Gaels have Matthew Delavedova, and we know how important good guards are in the tourney. But it’s not the quality of St. Mary’s but my worry in Memphis that would lead me to pick an upset. Memphis turns the ball over a lot- guards Joe Jackson and Geron Johnson average a combined 5.6 turnovers per game- and it seems like every year there is a 5-6 seeded mid major who ends up losing. I’m almost positive that Memphis and/or Butler will lose.

#7 Creighton vs. #10 Cincinnati: This game is very interesting. I think Cincinnati might be the more well rounded, better overall team, but Creighton has the potential to go much further in the tournament (I think they’d be much more likely to beat Duke than Cincy). If this were a contest of who is more intriguing and who has the potential to go further, the pick would be Creighton, but in this game my gut says this is a coin-flip. Hopefully, for the sake of Duke haters, Creighton pulls it off.

#8 Colorado State vs. #9 Missouri: According to ESPN, the public is picking Missouri in this one, and it isn’t even close. Mizzu supporters are outnumbering Rams fans by a 2:1 margin. My question is: Why? Let’s face it. Neither of these teams will get past Louisville. I think most people really underrate the Mountain West Conference. The MWC had the highest % of teams in the tournament, and the Rams have won against many of the league’s elite. Missouri, on the other hand, has not shown an ability to win on the road, with all their best wins coming at home. In fact, the Tigers are 6-10 in neutral site or true road games. That doesn’t inspire confidence.

Bottom line: The public is overwhelmingly backing Missouri (67%), Memphis (87%), and St. Louis (88%), among others. I believe the first two will lose, and St. Louis should not be as much of a shoo-in as they are. The Oregon-Oklahoma State game is intriguing, but it really should be a third round matchup. I don’t think it’s a toss up, but either team could conceivably win. Creighton-Cincy is a true toss-up.