Week 4 Review..

Posted: 10/04/2013 by levcohen in Football

It’s coming three days late, but it’s coming.. Week four review..

Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 2-1 against the spread) at Buffalo Bills (1-2, 2-1):
Line: Ravens favored by 3
Over/under: 44.5
My prediction: Ravens- 26, Bills- 21.. I honestly have no idea where to go with this game. The Ravens have been very inconsistent, losing by 22 to Denver, barely beating the Browns, and then annihilating the Texans by a score of 30-9. The Bills have had their three games decided by a total of 10 points. The Ravens are 0-1 on the road, while Buffalo is 1-1 at home. I just trust the Ravens more.
Ravens cover
Over

Results: Bills- 23, Ravens- 20.. This is not a good start, as I get an 0/3 on this one. It really came down to a few plays, but the Bills look like a pretty solid home team.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1, 2-0-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2, 1-2):
Line: Bengals favored by 3.5
Over/under: 42.5
My prediction: Bengals- 27, Browns- 13.. A lot of people are predicting a Browns upset here, but I think their win over the Vikings was more an indictment of Minnesota than a sign that Cleveland is a good football team. I will continue to back the Bengals until they get a little bit more support, because it seems like their lines have been off for each game this season.
Bengals cover
Under

Results: Browns- 17, Bengals- 6.. I get just the over/under right on this one, as the Browns are now 3-2 following a win over the Bills last night. The Bengals looked pretty shaky, but they should be fine. The Browns could win eight or nine games, but I don’t think double digits is a likelihood.

Chicago Bears (3-0, 1-1-1) at Detroit Lions (2-1, 2-1):
Line: Lions favored by 3
Over/under: 47.5
My prediction: Lions- 28, Bears- 24.. The Bears are 3-0, but in the last two weeks they’ve given up a combined 53 points to Minnesota and Pittsburgh. Detroit is a much more prolific offense than either of those teams, so expect this to be high scoring.
Lions cover
Over

Results: Lions- 40, Bears- 32.. This was a typically crazy Bears-Lions game with seven combined turnovers and 72 points. I get a 3/3 here, and the Lions could surprise some people this year.

New York Giants (0-3, 0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0, 2-1):
Line: Chiefs favored by 4
Over/under: 43.5
My prediction: Chiefs- 16, Giants- 13.. This has the makings of a terrible game. On the one hand, I want to pick the Giants, as they are usually pretty good on the road and it is hard to imagine them starting 0-4. On the other hand, the Giants this year may really be terrible. The Chiefs are a solid team, but they aren’t really a prototypical 4-0 team, so I’d expect them to slip up sooner rather than later.
Giants cover
Under

Results: Chiefs- 31, Giants- 7.. I get just the spread wrong. This looked pretty good at halftime, as the score was a messy 10-7 Chiefs. But then the Giants continued to fall apart and the Chiefs broke the game open.

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3, 0-3) at Minnesota Vikings (0-3, 1-2):- London Game
Line: Steelers by 3
Over/under: 41
My prediction: Steelers- 27, Vikings- 13.. Imagine a soccer game between Crystal Palace and Sunderland in New York City. That’s basically what the NFL has given London, as the Steelers and Vikings might be the two worst non-Jaguar teams in the NFL (and the NFL is also sending Jacksonville to London, so of the four teams London sees, three are among the five worst in the NFL).
Steelers cover
Under

Results: Vikings- 34, Steelers- 27.. Oh well.. 0/3 in this one. Neither defense could get stops, which says a lot about their defenses, and Matt Cassel might not be the permanent Vikings starting QB because he got a win, even though he wasn’t very sharp. Simply put, this season isn’t going to end well for either team.

Arizona Cardinals (1-2, 2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3, 1-2):*
Line: Buccaneers by 1
Over/under: 40
My prediction: Cardinals- 20, Buccaneers- 17.. This is just a terrible game, and for some reason I’m taking the Cardinals, who are dreadful on the road, to win.
Cardinals cover
Under

Results: Cardinals- 13, Buccaneers- 10.. I lucked into a 3/3 here, as the Cards came back from 10-0 down. The Cardinals aren’t great, but they might be average, which is much more than I can say about the Buccaneers.

Indianapolis Colts (2-1, 1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3, 0-3):
Line: Colts by 9.5
Over/under: 42.5
My prediction: Colts- 23, Jaguars- 13.. Until the Jaguars show something, I’m not picking them. But this could well be the game that Maurice Jones-Drew breaks out against a soft Colts run defense. That’s why I’m giving them 13 points
Colts cover
Under

Results: Colts- 37, Jaguars- 3.. As I said, I’m not picking the Jaguars until they show something. And they definitely showed nothing against the Colts. So expect me to pick the Rams, favored by double figures, over the Jags.

Seattle Seahawks (3-0, 3-0) at Houston Texans (2-1, 0-3):*
Line: Seahawks by 1
Over/under: 41.5
My prediction: Texans- 23, Seahawks- 20.. I understand why everyone loves the Seahawks. I do too. But don’t forget that they have always had huge home/road splits, and their last two blowouts have come at home. They beat Carolina by five points in their lone road meeting, so I think the Texans can edge them here.
Texans cover
Over

Results: Seahawks- 23, Texans- 20.. This was a nightmare, as the Texans were up 20-3 at the half and 20-13 with the ball with three minutes left before Matt Schaub threw a pick-six to Richard Sherman. The end of the game was predictable, as the Seahawks kicked a game winning field goal in overtime.

New York Jets (2-1, 3-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-1, 2-0-1):
Line: Titans by 3.5
Over/under: 40.5
My prediction: Titans- 16, Jets- 10.. It’s hard to imagine, but one of these teams will be 3-1. I think it will be the Titans at home, but to be honest I’m not really sure. I am pretty confident in the “Under” pick, as both of these teams have impressive defenses and sluggish offenses.
Titans cover
Under

Results: Titans- 38, Jets- 13.. I got the over/under wrong, as the Titans totally exploded offensively (well, not really. They were outgained 330-322 by the Jets offense, but they played amazingly well defensively and cashed in on their chances). Could the Titans be a playoff team? It’s looking possible, if not likely.

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2, 1-2) at Denver Broncos (3-0, 3-0):- Lock of the week
Line: Broncos by 10.5
Over/under: 58.5 (highest of the year?)
My prediction: Broncos- 41, Eagles- 35.. Going back to last season, the Broncos have scored at least 34 points in six straight regular season games. That streak will end, but not against the Eagles. Plus, this 58.5 over/under should end up being the highest this year, and I would even argue that it should be a little higher. I thought the highest spread was last week with Seattle vs. Jacksonville, but look out for week six, when Jacksonville has to travel to Denver. If things keep going the way they are going right now, Denver could be 25 point favorites.
Eagles cover
Over

Results: Broncos- 52, Eagles- 20.. Well I was right about one thing: the Eagles were not even close to stopping the Broncos offense. But unfortunately, they weren’t able to score, which led to an unfortunate thirty-two point bashing. Oh well. 2/3.

Washington Redskins (0-3, 0-3) at Oakland Raiders (1-2, 2-1):*
Line: Redskins favored by 3
Over/under: 44
My prediction: Raiders- 31, Redskins- 27.. Am I missing something here? Two terrible defenses and a 44 over/under? The terrible Washington Redskins are not six points better than the Raiders (three point favorites + three point home field advantage). I just don’t believe it.
Raiders cover
Over

Results: Redskins- 24, Raiders- 14.. Well maybe I was missing something. The score was 14-0 Raiders at the end of the first quarter and 14-10 at halftime, so my prediction looked pretty good. Then the Redskins slowly took control of the game and I got an 0/3. By the way, when I made this post I was under the impression that Terrelle Pryor was starting, but the earlier news was wrong and he wasn’t even active, which I think greatly influenced the result.

Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 3-0) at San Diego Chargers (1-2, 2-0-1):*
Line: Cowboys favored by 1
Over/under: 46.5
My prediction: Chargers- 23, Cowboys- 20.. No, I’m not confident in this pick. At all. But I’m going to avoid picking the NFC East to win football games until they prove me otherwise, which the Cowboys might just do if they win this one.
Chargers cover
Under

Results: Chargers- 31, Cowboys- 20.. I get a 2/3, with the over/under wrong. And yet the Cowboys still lead the NFC East, which is now an amazingly horrific 4-12, including 2-10 out of the division. Seven wins may truly win the division, and even with the loss, it will probably be the Cowboys who squeak it out.

New England Patriots (3-0, 1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2, 1-2):*
Line: Falcons favored by 1
Over/under: 49.5
My prediction: Patriots- 27, Falcons- 21.. Here is the bottom line: The Falcons might not be a good team. Until we see Roddy White and/or Tony Gonzalez break out, I’m going to assume that this is Matt Ryan & Julio Jones vs. the Patriots. And I like the Patriots there.
Patriots cover
Under

Results: Patriots- 30, Falcons- 23.. This looked like a 3/3 going into the fourth quarter, with the score 13-10, but then both offensives broke out and scored a combined 30 points in the fourth quarter, so I lost the over/under. By the way, the Patriots are now 4-0. Which is pretty amazing considering how shaky they have looked at time and how many injuries they have.

Miami Dolphins (3-0, 3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0, 2-1):
Line: Saints favored by 6.5
Over/under: 48
My prediction: Saints- 30, Dolphins- 20.. I also like the Dolphins, and I don’t think this will be a big loss for them in the long run. But the Saints at home favored by less than a touchdown facing a Miami team without Cameron Wake on Monday Night Football? Yes, please.
Saints cover
Over

Results: Saints- 38, Dolphins- 17.. Drew Brees was unstoppable, as was the Saints offense as a whole. The Dolphins are solid, but they won’t be able to hang with the big dogs on the road very often.

Upset picks:
Cardinals over Buccaneers- CORRECT
Patriots over Falcons- CORRECT
Chargers over Cowboys- CORRECT
Raiders over Redskins- INCORRECT
Texans over Seahawks- INCORRECT

By far my best week when it comes to my upset picks, as for the first time I was over .500. And it should have been 4-1 (stupid Matt Schaub) but oh well.

3-2.. 6-10 total.

Lock of the week:
Broncos over Eagles- CORRECT

4-0 total.

Straight up picks.. 10-5.. 39-24 total
Spread picks.. 8-7.. 25-36-2
Over/under picks… 9-6.. 33-30

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