Sunday Preview

The wild card round continues today with two more games, both of which seem pretty hard to predict. There’s a clear favorite in each game, but each favorite is pretty inconsistent while each underdog can have periods of dominance. And with the exception of the Colts, these teams have been out of the playoff race for much of the 21st century. The most likely result? One game goes the way we think it will, and one doesn’t, like yesterday, when the Cardinals were predictably suffocated by the Panthers but the Ravens pulled off the mild upset over the Steelers. Here are my predictions:

Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1, 8-7-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5, 10-5-1):
Spread: Colts favored by 3.5
Over/under: 47.5
My prediction: This is a tough one. Do I take the team with Andy Dalton at quarterback and his top weapon (A.J. Green) out? Or do I take the team that was 2-5 against 10+ win teams with a -50 point differential in those games? The Colts have become a totally one-dimensional team since the injury to Ahmad Bradshaw. Although the Colts averaged five yards per carry against the Bengals in week seven, that was with Bradshaw carrying the ball 10 times. Trent Richardson and Dan Herron had success in that game, but I don’t think they’ll play as well today, which is problematic against a Cincinnati team that has struggled against the run. That means their passing game is going to have to fire on all cylinders if the Colts want to win this game. With Andrew Luck, that’s pretty likely to happen, but it didn’t over the final weeks of the season. After posting 300+ yards in nine of his first 10 starts, Luck hit 300 just once over the final six weeks, averaged well under 250 per game in that time. In particular, their offense was brutal against the playoff-bound Cowboys and the Watt-led Texans. As a result, after averaging 32 points per game before the week 10 BYE, the Colts have averaged just 24 per game since. But this matchup might not be so bad for Indianapolis’s passing game. The Bengals’ secondary is good, but their pass rush is terrible, as only one player (Carlos Dunlap) had more than three sacks and they were out-sacked as a team by Justin Houston and J.J. Watt. And against a team without a pass rush, Luck can be dominant. He’s probably going to be able to move down the field.

The Bengals’ offense might be in worse shape. Just as they were without A.J. Green in the 27-0 loss to the Colts in week seven, they will be again today. And it didn’t go so well last time. Andy Dalton was “Bad Andy”, going 18/38 for 126 yards (a brutal 3.3 yards per attempt) and a 7.9 QBR. Jermaine Gresham somehow caught 10 balls for 48 yards, which shows how boring and flat the offense was. The Bengals have to hope their run game makes a difference in this game. The game against the Colts may well have been the one that prompted change in the game plan, both because Gio Bernard got hurt and because the team carried the ball just 12 times for 32 yards. The next week, Jeremy Hill ran all over the Jaguars, and the rest is history. With Bernard back, the Bengals have a pretty good 1-2 combo at running back, and the Colts have had trouble against the run at times this year. To stay in this game, the Bengals can’t force the ball down the field through the air, which would likely lead to turnovers. Expect Hill and Bernard to get a healthy dose of carries, and eventually that should lead to points for the offense.

Ok, so the Colts will move the ball through the air and the Bengals will move the ball on the ground. Who will win out? This might come down to turnovers. If Dalton has another “Bad Andy” game, there’s no chance the Bengals will win this game. And if Daniel Herron, a Colts running back who has fumbled often in his young career, coughs the ball up at the wrong time, the Colts could lose a game they should win. I’m picking the Colts in a close game because I just trust Luck more than Dalton in a close game. 24-21 Colts.
Bengals cover
Under

Detroit Lions (11-5, 7-9) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4, 10-6):
Spread: Cowboys favored by 6
Over/under: 48
My prediction: Oh boy. The two Thanksgiving home teams. Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo. What could go wrong?

I said that sarcastically, of course, but I actually think this will be a game with limited offensive mistakes. I don’t think we’ll see many turnovers, as both teams have been pretty good at holding onto the ball, especially recently. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a late interception, though.

This is a matchup between two teams built very different ways. The Cowboys are a run-first, offensive line heavy team, while the Lions set up the run with the pass and are built around their defensive line. One key to this game will be Calvin Johnson. Johnson had what for him constituted a down season, but he had 14 catches and 329 yards against the Cowboys last year when Dallas amazingly chose not to double-cover Megatron. The circumstances are different this year, with a revamped Cowboys defense likely to double Johnson at least on passing downs, but it’s still possible that he can shred the undermanned Dallas defense and be the difference in this game. And if the Cowboys do decide to put a safety over the top against Megatron, Golden Tate will have more room to work down the other side of the field. Any way I look at it, the Lions seem likely to move the ball through the air. The keys will be whether Matthew Stafford can prevent turnovers and whether the Lions can establish their Joique Bell-led run game early on to prevent third-and-longs.

The other side of the ball is what has gotten the most attention, because it has been panned as strength vs. strength. And while it’s true that the Cowboys’ top offensive line will go against one of the best front sevens in recent history, the passing game is more of a mismatch. I expect Tony Romo to have his way with a Detroit secondary that hasn’t been as good recently (maybe because Suh and company have gotten less pressure on opposing QBs) than they were earlier in the season. Dez Bryant is primed for a big game, and the Cowboys should utilize DeMarco Murray in the screen game when he has his struggles in the run game.

The Cowboys were the much better team this season, but it’s not hard to envision a scenario in which the Lions’ offense clicks and the Cowboys stay with the run for a drive or two too long, leading to some punts. While everyone has focused on Dallas offense vs. Detroit defense, I think this will come down to the Detroit offense. Given the amount of talent they have on the offensive side of the ball, it’s been surprising to see how mediocre they have been throughout the season. Whether that is the effect of Johnson’s injury-marred season or Stafford’s step back or a poor offensive line remains to be seen, but they need to put it all together today in a way they haven’t all season. I think the Lions will come close, but the Cowboys’ offense will be just too much. The Lions, who went “under” the over/under in 11 of their 16 games (averaging about a touchdown under), aren’t accustomed to playing in shootouts, while the Cowboys, who are 4-3 in games in which they have allowed 27+ points, are. Cowboys win in a nailbiter 31-28. And yes, I’m hedging my bets in both games intentionally.
Lions cover
Over

Revisiting Preseason Over/Unders and Saturday Preview

Before the year started, I did six over/under NFL bets, picking three teams to go “over” their preseason bets and three to go “under.” I predictably had varying success, with a few homers and a few strikeouts. The biggest thing I noticed when looking back on these picks is that I really didn’t have to sweat it out over the last few weeks of the season; the fate of each of the six bets was pretty much sealed a month ago. Let’s go over them right now:

Winning bets:
San Francisco 49ers, under 10.5: The 49ers fell apart this year, ending at 8-8 and parting ways with wildly successful coach Jim Harbaugh. They went under this total comfortably.

Indianapolis Colts, over 9.5: They actually struggled more than I thought they would, but this was never really in doubt either. Andrew Luck won 11 games for the third consecutive year (his first three in the NFL), which makes me wonder why the over/under was so low. The Colts were terrible against good teams, but they played so many bad ones that it didn’t matter.

Houston Texans, over 7.5: This was probably my closest call. The 9-7 Texans fell to 5-6 before winning four of their last five and clearing the bar by 1.5 wins. Like the Colts, they won the games they were supposed to win (7-1 against sub-.500 teams). In the end, their overtime loss in Dallas early in the season was a lot more important than it looked at the time, as it ended up keeping the Texans out of the playoffs.

Losing bets:
Cleveland Browns, under 6.5: This actually turned out pretty close, as the Browns finished 7-9. But they won their seventh game in week 12, improving to 7-4, before losing five straight. If only that losing streak had started a week earlier.

Dallas Cowboys, under 7.5: These next two failed with flying colors. Rather than dropping below .500, the Cowboys were the biggest surprise in all of football, improving to 12-4 thanks to a great offense and a not-as-bad-as-expected defense. I don’t think they’ll make the Super Bowl as others have predicted, but the fact that it’s even a conversation means this was a complete failure.

Chicago Bears, over 8.5: And picking the 5-11 Bears to go over was almost as bad. They were possibly the biggest disappointment in the NFL and ended up benching expensive quarterback Jay Cutler and firing both the coach and GM. So this didn’t go as expected, either, leaving me at 3-3.

Before I get to the wild card weekend picks, I also have to update my weekly totals. I’m not doing a full week 17 review because I don’t see the point of it given that the regular season is over, but I went:
2-3 on upset picks… 31-37 on the season
1-0 on lock of the week… 12-5
11-5 straight up… 166-89-1
10-6 against the spread… 134-117-5
8-8 over/under… 116-137-3

I’m going to keep making these predictions in the playoffs, so I’ll keep a running total. I notched my second or third perfect prediction of the year with Saints-Buccaneers, which is ironically the one I said I wanted no part of. Now for the playoff predictions for the two games tomorrow:

Arizona Cardinals (11-5, 11-5 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1, 8-8):
Spread: Panthers favored by 6.5
Over/under: 38
My prediction: For most of the season, the question was not whether the NFC South team would be an underdog but by how many points. When it looked as if Seattle might be the #5 seed, people said the NFC South winner could be double-digit home underdogs. Of course, because this is the NFL, the NFC South playoff team is a 6.5 favorite against the NFC West wild card team. It’s gotten to the point that it’s kind of hard to imagine the Panthers losing this game, both because they have played well recently and (more so) because Arizona has struggled both offensively and defensively and will start Ryan Lindley.

It’s still probably a good idea to be cautious about picking the Panthers, since their four game winning streak has come against the rest of the NFC South and the Browns, but they look like the lesser of two evils in a game that might be one of the worst playoff games ever. Cam Newton is obviously much better than Lindley, and he has been consistently solid for an offense that doesn’t have much else. This offense has a lot of flaws (exhibit A: the offensive line), and I think some of them are going to be exposed even against an injury-ravaged defense, but it should be good enough to outscore the Cardinals. After ranking as a top five team against the run over the first 11 weeks, the Cardinals have allowed a league-worst 5.6 yards per carry since. If they can’t stop the run, they can’t really do anything, and run defense will be vital against the run-heavy Panthers.

It’s on the defensive side of the ball that the Panthers excelled both in their 12-4 season last year and over the past four weeks. They’ve allowed fewer than 11 points per game over the course of their winning streak, including just 13 combined to Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. This week they have the task of going against Arizona’s high powered offense that features Carson Palmer and Andre Ellington… er, Ryan Lindley and Kerwynn Williams. The Cardinals won’t be able to move the ball. Is Lindley the worst quarterback to ever start a playoff game? Probably not, but he’s in the conversation.

If Lindley has the game of his life, the Cardinals can keep this game close and win it in the end. I don’t think that’s very likely, though, which is why I’ll take the Panthers comfortably. Panthers win 21-13.
Panthers cover
Under

Baltimore Ravens (10-6, 7-8-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5, 9-7):
Spread: Steelers favored by 3
Over/under: 45
My prediction: Here we go again with Ravens-Steelers. It’s the third time they’ve played this season, with the first two matchups being decided by 20 points each. While this is still among the better rivalries in football, it’s not going to be the ground and pound game we’ve come to see in AFC North showdowns. I expect to see a somewhat high scoring game, even though Le’Veon Bell, the running back who had a breakout year for the Steelers, will be out.

You can easily make the argument that losing Bell will doom the Steelers here. They put the ball in his and Antonio Brown’s hands all season at a very high rate, and now they have lost one of their two playmakers. But while losing Bell and replacing him with an inexperienced back obviously isn’t ideal, I don’t think it will cost them the game. The Steelers were always unlikely to move the ball very well on the ground in this game. The Ravens have one of the best run defenses (and front sevens) in football, and the way to attack their defense is through the passing game. That’s why I think the key to this game is whether Baltimore’s pass rush- featuring Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs- can get to Ben Roethlisberger quickly. If Roethlisberger has time to throw, he’ll carve up the Ravens like he did in their regular season game in Pittsburgh (six touchdown passes). But if the pass rush can hit home, the Steelers’ offense won’t look as dominant. Antonio Brown is probably going to get his stats, given that he’s had success against much better pass defenses than this incredibly banged up Ravens one, but Roethlisberger won’t be able to hit the deep throws that have come so often if he’s under constant pressure.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens offense is solid but won’t be able to keep up if the Steelers score like they have at times this season. They have some weapons, from Steve Smith to Torrey Smith to Justin Forsett, but we generally know what we’re going to get from Joe Flacco and company. And while the Steelers’ defense has improved recently, they aren’t better than mediocre and won’t be able to carry a struggling offense.

Again, the question is: Baltimore pass rush or Pittsburgh passing game? In a game that is expected to be played in inclement weather (rain), the Ravens might have the advantage, but I think it’s pretty much a coin-flip. I’m going to take the Steelers because they have been playing so much better than the Ravens of late and because, even given Bell’s injury, they are still the healthier team. Steelers win 27-20
Steelers cover
Over

College Football Playoff Predictions

This might be hyperbolic, but I think today is the most important day in college football history. It’s the first day of the four team college football playoff, and the ratings, reaction, etc. will decide which direction college football will go with its postseason. Everyone’s happy the BCS era is over, but there are differing opinions on where college football should go from here. Is a four team playoff perfect, or should it be expanded further? Most people are in favor of expanding it, but I actually think it’s perfect. Expanding it more would lessen some of the importance of really big rivalry games (like Alabama-Auburn) and would water down the field. Sure, TCU and Baylor feel jilted right now, but that’s part of the fun of sports. Not everyone is going to be happy in the end, whether it’s a four, eight, or 68 team playoff. And there will always be points of debate and conflict between the CFP committee and the rest of us. I just think it would be better if those debate points are between two really good options (TCU and Ohio State) rather than two mediocre ones who wouldn’t even have played in a BCS bowl.

So on a macro level, today’s games mean a lot for college football. On a micro level, I expect at least one of them to be entertaining and come down to the wire. How can the Oregon-Florida State not come down to the wire? FSU, undefeated with Jameis Winston, is somehow 13-0 and just 3-10 against the spread. Their last four games have been decided by less than a touchdown, and it’s fair to say that they were lucky to win some of the games they did (against Notre Dame, for example). Meanwhile, Oregon has really been rolling since November started, winning their last five games by an average of 31 points per game. That explains why they are 7.5 point favorites, but I’m not sure how they will stop Winston and a Seminoles offense that can come close to matching Oregon’s firepower. Both teams have gotten healthier recently, and I think the outcome of this game will hinge on whether the Florida State defense, dominant last year but mediocre this season, can make Marcus Mariota feel uncomfortable. I think the answer to that question is probably “no,” which is why I see the Ducks winning this. But given that Winston has never lost a game let alone been blown out, I find it hard to believe that FSU will get destroyed. I think they should (ironically) cover the spread in a high scoring game.

Unfortunately, the Alabama-Ohio State game might not be as interesting. Make no mistake about it: Ohio State has been perhaps the hottest team in college football of late, scoring at least 40 points in eight of their last 10 (and 50+ in five of those). They also dismantled Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game, shutting down Melvin Gordon and showing that their defensive line is their biggest strength. I think the Buckeyes will be able to limit, if not completely shut down, Alabama’s run game. The pass game, though, is a different story. The Crimson Tide have a terrific receiving core, led by the best and scariest WR in all of college football in Heisman finalist and Biletnikoff winner Amari Cooper. Cooper has drawn comparisons to some of the best receivers in the NFL (Julio Jones is one) and should have his way against an undersized and unproven OSU secondary. If Blake Sims is on his game for Alabama, they should be able to move the ball. On the other side of the ball, it’s always scary to face the Tide’s defense with a third-string quarterback. With Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett out, Cardale Jones excelled against the Badgers (and made the cover of both SI and ESPN Magazine), but Alabama is a whole different beast. They have traditionally given backup quarterbacks a hard time, and while their defense hasn’t been as good as some other Nick Saban defenses, it’s rounded into form since the heartbreaking loss to Mississippi. They have allowed 20 or fewer points in six of the seven games since the loss, with the exception being against Auburn. Ohio State is probably going to need to score at least 30 points to win, and I’m not sure they’ll be able to do that with Jones starting. I think Alabama will win this game comfortably. Ohio State has hammered Big 10 opponents, but Alabama is much better than any Big 10 team the Buckeyes faced. I’m not counting OSU out, because they have a high-octane offense that can keep them in any game, but I’d be surprised to see the Buckeyes win. I’ll take the Crimson Tide in a spread-covering (they are 8.5 point favorites) win.

That would set up an exciting game between Alabama and Oregon, the two powerhouses over the past few years. They surprisingly haven’t played each other recently, and this is the matchup I’m rooting for. This is college football, though, so anything can happen both today and in the final. That’s what makes this sport so great.