Week 2 Review

Posted: 09/17/2014 by levcohen in Football

Every week, something about the NFL is shocking (besides the huge number of arrests and penalties). This past week, it was injuries, along with the underdogs’ impressive 7-9 straight up record. Robert Griffin III, DeSean Jackson, A.J. Green, Jamaal Charles, Knowshon Moreno, Eric Berry, Vernon Davis, and many others went down. In that way, it was a terrible week, as Griffin’s Redskins career seems close to an end now and Charles’s injury dooms the Chiefs (if they weren’t doomed already).

Miami Dolphins (1-0, 1-0 against the spread) at Buffalo Bills (1-0, 1-0):*
Spread: Bills favored by 1.5
Over/under: 43
My prediction: 27-20 Dolphins.
Result: Just like last week, I start off with an 0/3 here, as the Bills’ defense dominated throughout en route to a 29-10 win. It actually could have been a lot worse for Miami, as EJ Manuel didn’t play great and the Bills had to kick five field goals. But Miami’s offense was shut down by Buffalo’s lockdown defense, which looks like Seattle’s so far, and they also lost starting running back Moreno, who suffered a nasty-looking dislocated elbow and will be out anywhere from four to eight weeks.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1, 0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1, 0-1):
Spread: Redskins favored by 5
Over/under: 43
My prediction: Washington 21-17.
Result: A 1/3, with just the winner correct. This was a really weird game, as Griffin looked really good before his ankle injury and then Kirk Cousins took over and threw the ball well in a 41-10 win. This to me was more the Jaguars being really bad than the Redskins being any good. Still think Jacksonville could have the #1 pick next season while Washington will finish outside the playoffs.

Dallas Cowboys (0-1, 0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0, 1-0):*
Spread: Titans favored by 3
Over/under: 49.5
My prediction: Cowboys 30-27
Result: 2/3 here, with the over/under wrong. Got an upset pick right, and the Cowboys’ defense looks a lot better than people were making it out to be. That’s not saying much, but the defense has actually looked defense. When you have weapons like DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant on offense, a decent defense is enough to win games. They gave up just 10 points in this one against an anemic Tennessee offense.

Arizona Cardinals (1-0, 0-1) at New York Giants (0-1, 0-1):*
Spread: Giants favored by 2
Over/under: 41.5
My prediction: Cardinals win 24-20.
Result: Got the over/under wrong for the fifth straight game (maybe I should just stop picking over/under), but correctly picked another upset. The Giants look like they really stink, and should not have been favored in this one even after Carson Palmer’s injury. They turned the ball over four times for the bajillionth straight time and lost 25-14. Arizona looks legit.

New England Patriots (0-1, 0-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0, 1-0):
Spread: Patriots favored by 4
Over/under: 49
My prediction: Patriots 30-13
Result: A 3/3 here, and this is my closest prediction to this point. The Patriots won 30-7 against the Adrian Peterson-less Vikings (and they’ll be without Peterson for a long time. You probably knew that already) and look like they should be fine after everyone panicked following their week one loss.

New Orleans Saints (0-1, 0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1, 1-0):
Spread: Saints favored by 5
Over/under: 49.5
My prediction: Saints win 28-24
Result: This could have been worse, given that it was the second biggest upset of the week. I ended up getting the spread and over/under right, with the Browns winning 26-24. The Saints are really bad away from home, at least compared to their home proficiency. Drew Brees has been shaky, so Saints fans must hope he’ll turn it around at home in week three. Meanwhile, the Browns are pesky. I don’t know if they’ll win a ton of games, but they’ll be interesting.

Atlanta Falcons (1-0, 1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0, 1-0):
Spread: Bengals favored by 5.5
Over/under: 48.5
My prediction: Bengals win 27-20.
Result: Another 3/3, as the Bengals really separated themselves from the middle of the pack with a 24-10 win. I think Cincinnati is the third or fourth best team in football right now, so this doesn’t reflect too badly on Atlanta. I think the Falcons should be fine, but people were overrating them after their week one win over New Orleans, which looks much less impressive after the Saints lost to the Browns. Atlanta will be alright, but I don’t think they win the NFC South. The Bengals, on the other hand, have a great shot at a first round BYE.

Detroit Lions (1-0, 1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0, 1-0):
Spread: Panthers favored by 1
Over/under: 43.5
My prediction: Panthers win 24-20.
Result: 2/3 with the over/under wrong again. Carolina looks like they did last year, which is surprising because most people had them (myself included) had them taking a sizable step back this year. Even without Greg Hardy, who also won’t play for a while, the defense looks great, as it held the Lions’ explosive offense to seven points in a 24-7 win. The Panthers have to be considered the favorites to win the NFC South, as they already have a two game lead over New Orleans and have looked better than Atlanta and Tampa Bay. The defense is among the best and Cam Newton is overlooked when people discuss good young signal callers.

St. Louis Rams (0-1, 0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1, 0-1):
Spread: Buccaneers favored by 4.5
Over/under: 37.5
My prediction: Buccaneers win 21-13.
Result: Ok, the Buccaneers stink. I tried to convince myself to stay on their bandwagon for one more week, but I just couldn’t do it. After their 19-17 loss to the Rams (just the over/under correct), they’ve now lost their first two games, both of which have been at home. That’s rough, and they won’t be able to bounce back from it. Meanwhile, St. Louis’s defense bounced back well after giving up a lot against Minnesota, reaffirming my belief in them. The Rams will hang around in most of their games.

Seattle Seahawks (1-0, 1-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-1, 1-0):
Spread: Seahawks favored by 5
Over/under: 45
My prediction: Seahawks win 24-14
Result: Got this one totally wrong, and was shocked to see the Chargers put up 30 points against Seattle’s defense. The Seahawks are still really good, so this says more about San Diego, who look good and could end up winning double-digit games. For those of you saying Richard Sherman got destroyed yesterday, you’re wrong: he got beat once or twice but for the most part played like the shutdown cornerback he usually is.

Houston Texans (1-0, 1-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-1, 0-0-1):
Spread: Texans favored by 3
Over/under: 40.5
My prediction: Texans 17-16.
Result: Just the winner correct. The Texans won 30-14, which means the Raiders are a lot worse than I thought. And I thought they were pretty bad. 0-16 seems possible, even though this is way too early to predict something like that. As for Houston, they have a really easy schedule this season and look like they are good enough to take advantage of that schedule. A soft 9-7 seems likely.

New York Jets (1-0, 0-0-1) at Green Bay Packers (0-1, 0-1):
Spread: Packers favored by 7
Over/under: 46.5
My prediction: Packers 27-17
Result: Push the spread and lose the over/under in a seven point Green Bay win. The Packers looked bad in this one, and were lucky to escape Lambeau with a win over the Jets, who looked pretty bad but did enough to stay in the game. Final score was 31-24 Packers, and this was one of those games that reflects poorly on both teams.

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1, 0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0, 0-1):- Lock of the Week
Spread: Broncos favored by 13
Over/under: 49
My prediction: Broncos win 31-20
Result: Lose over/under again but get the other two right in a 24-17 Broncos win. I’m now 1-1 on lock’s of the week, as the Chiefs made it interesting on their last drive but never really seemed a threat to win the game. Denver’s just been going through the motions for the first few weeks of the season, which explains their 2-0 record and 0-2 against the spread. Kansas City is toast, especially if Jamaal Charles is out for a substantial amount of time.

Chicago Bears (0-1, 0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-0, 1-0):
Spread: 49ers favored by 7
Over/under: 47
My prediction: 49ers win 26-20.
Result: Barely lose over/under, so I only got the spread right here. I really should have picked Chicago, but was spooked by their receivers’ injuries. Alshon Jeffery looked hindered, but Brandon Marshall fought through his injury and caught three touchdowns (granted, he only caught two other passes for 48 total yards). Meanwhile, I’m not a huge fan of this San Francisco team, so I’m not surprised that they imploded in their home opener. Week three against Arizona will be huge.

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0, 1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1, 1-0):
Spread: Colts favored by 3
Over/under: 54
My prediction: Colts win 34-30.
Result: Just the over/under correct here, as Andrew Luck lost back-to-back regular season games for the first time in his career. He also lost a one possession game, which is very unusual for the third year quarterback. Indianapolis should still probably be favored to win their week division at 0-2, but they need to get hot fast. Meanwhile, the Eagles look like they are on their way to winning the NFC East. Granted, that isn’t saying much, but it’s a start.

Upset picks:
Dolphins over Bills- INCORRECT
Cowboys over Titans- CORRECT
Cardinals over Giants- CORRECT

2-1… 4-2 total

Lock of the week:
Broncos over Chiefs

1-0… 1-1 total

10-6 on game predictions… 20-12 total.
9-6-1 on spread.. 16-14-2 total.
5-11 on spread.. 8-23-1 on over/under. Next week I’m picking all games to go under. That will work better than whatever I’ve been doing.

  1. dpcathena says:

    Funny. I will take the over in all games.

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