Week One Review

Before I start, I need to remind everyone (including myself) not to overreact to week one. Maybe that’s a useless thing to say, because people always overreact after week one, but I’m going to say it anyway. The Patriots are still probably going to win the AFC East. The Vikings aren’t going to win every game by 30. Those facts might be obvious, but it’s easy to overreact to things you see in week one because it’s the only data we have on the 2014 season.

*= upset pick

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons:
Spread: Saints favored by 3
Over/under: 52
My prediction: Saints 31-20
Result: I went 0/3 on this one, as the Falcons upset the Saints 37-34. Throughout this game, it felt like the Saints were going to get on a roll and put the Falcons away, but it just never happened. To me, this says more about New Orleans’ defense (or lack thereof) than about the Falcons.

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams:
Spread: Rams favored by 3
Over/under: 43
My prediction: Rams 23-17
Result: A 1/3 here, with the over/under correct. The Rams really stink, and the Vikings could be good. They won this one 34-6.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers:
Spread: Steelers favored by 7
Over/under: 41.5
My prediction: Steelers win 17-13.
Result: 2/3 here, with the over/under wrong. The Steelers won 30-27, which was enough to get the Browns a cover. This was 27-3 at halftime, so I was getting worried, but the Browns’ offense pulled it together in the second half.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles:
Spread: Eagles favored by 10.5
Over/under: 51
My prediction: Eagles 27-17
Result: What a weird game. The Jaguars shockingly led 17-0 at halftime and looked set to cover and win against the heavily favored Eagles. Instead, they did neither: Philadelphia outscored Jacksonville 34-0 in the second, and I got a 1-1-1 (over/under pushed).

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets:
Spread: Jets favored by 5
Over/under: 40
My prediction: Jets win 27-17.
Result: Another 1-1-1, with spread pushing this time. The final score was 19-14 in favor of New York, and it wasn’t a game you or anyone should have watched. It was pretty bad.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens:*
Spread: Ravens favored by 2
Over/under: 42.5
My prediction: Bengals 24-20.
Result: A 2/3 here, as the Bengals pulled off the upset win but it went under 42.5. The final score was 23-16, and both teams looked good. The AFC North still looks like a three team race.

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears:- Lock of the Week
Spread: Bears favored by 7
Over/under: 47.5
My prediction: Bears 31-20.
Result: Even as I posted this, I had a feeling this game would go wrong for me. And go wrong it did, as I was dead wrong on this game. To add insult to injury, this makes me 0-1 on locks of the week. I should have picked the Eagles. 23-20 overtime win for the Bills.

Washington Redskins at Houston Texans:
Spread: Texans favored by 3
Over/under: 44.5
My prediction: Texans win 24-20.
Result: A 3/3 here, as the Redskins looked terrible in a 17-6 loss. This was another terrible game, and it says more about Washington than it does about Houston. I think Houston will be decent, but Washington looks pretty bad.

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs:
Spread: Chiefs favored by 3
Over/under: 44
My prediction: Chiefs win 24-23.
Result: 1/3 with the spread correct. The Titans rolled to a 26-10 win, but I still don’t think they are a playoff team. Jake Locker looked good, though.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins:*
Spread: Patriots favored by 4
Over/under: 46.5
My prediction: Dolphins win 24-21.
Result: 2/3 with the over/under wrong, as the Dolphins won 33-20. That means I was correct in my first two upset pucks, although the third didn’t go so well. The Patriots will be fine, but they might not be the elite team we all thought they’d be. Meanwhile, the Dolphins unveiled their new offense and look pretty good, especially on the ground.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Spread: Buccaneers favored by 2.5
Over/under: 38
My prediction: Buccaneers win 20-14.
Result: Got the score right, except for one key thing.. I had the Buccaneers winning, but it was the Panthers who ended up winning the game, even without Cam Newton. The Panthers’ defense was impressive, while Josh McCown was not. Both of these teams will have a lot of low scoring games this season.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys:
Spread: 49ers favored by 4
Over/under: 51
My prediction: 49ers win 38-31.
Result: 2/3 here, with the over/under wrong. The 49ers won 28-17 after taking a 28-3 lead into halftime. It feels like they could have won by a lot more had they tried to pour it on, because the Cowboys’ defense is terrible.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos:
Spread: Broncos favored by 7.5
Over/under: 55
My prediction: Broncos win 30-23.
Result: Although I was nearly dead-on in this prediction, I still went just 2-0-1 as the over/under pushed. Annoying. Final score 31-24. Never count out Andrew Luck, especially when the Colts are down by three touchdowns. The number of fourth quarter comebacks he has engineered is amazing.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions:*- MNF
Spread: Lions favored by 6.5
Over/under: 47
My prediction: Giants win 21-20.
Result: When it goes wrong, it really goes wrong. 0/3 here, with a 35-14 win flattering the Lions. I still don’t think Detroit is great (granted, Matthew Stafford looked very good), but the Giants are worse than I thought they would be.

San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals: – MNF
Spread: Cardinals favored by 3
Over/under: 46.5
My prediction:  Cardinals win 27-23.
Result: Just the winner right here, with the game ending 18-17. Arizona really should have scored more, as they turned 403 yards of offense into just 18 points. Disappointing.

Upset Picks:
Bengals over Ravens- CORRECT
Dolphins over Patriots- CORRECT
Giants over Lions- INCORRECT

2-1

Lock of the Week:
Bears over Bills- INCORRECT

0-1

Because it’s the NFL, of course my upset picks are more successful than my lock of the week. Expect that to change, though.

10-6 on game predictions
7-8-1 on spread
3-12-1 on over/under. It’s harder than you think. Believe me.