Week 6 Review

Posted: 10/16/2013 by levcohen in Football

I had another poor week against the spread, but to make me feel better, let’s take a look at how major prediction sites (that of fancy simulators and all) are faring.

Teamrankings.com: 40-49-3
Numberfire.com (doesn’t predict all games): 22-37-1

These are two top-flight prediction systems (with great winning  % in the past) but this year, they have been well below average. Which just tells us that this is a super weird year, and the odds makers are getting better and better.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2, 3-1-1 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (2-3, 3-2):
Line: Bengals favored by 4.5
Over/under: 41.5
My prediction: Bengals- 20, Bills- 13.. This line was as high as 9.5 a few days ago, but people have realized the stupidity of that line and pushed it down five points to 4.5. I think it’s in the right range now, but it may have gotten too low, as Thad Lewis is the starting quarterback for the Buffalo Bills. This looks like a very Bengals-esque victory.
Bengals cover

Results: Bengals- 27, Bills- 24.. Just the score right… It was 24-10 going into the fourth, and I was looking at a 3/3, but somehow Thaddeus Lewis led the Bills back into the game. I was right about one thing: this was a very Bengals-esque win. They always play to their opponents’ talent level, even though they should be blowing teams like Buffalo and Cleveland out.

Detroit Lions (3-2, 3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2, 3-2):*
Line: Lions favored by 1
Over/under: 43.5
My prediction: Browns- 23, Lions- 16.. This comes down to Calvin Johnson. It looks like he might suit up today, but he is going to be on a limited snap count and the Lions have almost no offense without him or with him compromised. They scored 9 points against a below average Packers defense, so I’m confident that the Browns can keep them under wraps and win this game. Yes, with Brandon Weeden starting at quarterback.
Browns cover

Results: Lions- 31, Browns- 17.. It happens again. The Browns were up– at home, no less– 17-7 at halftime and 17-14 after three quarters. And then the Browns defense fell apart and I got an 0/3. I wonder what my record against the spread would be if games ended after three quarters.

Oakland Raiders (2-3, 3-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0, 4-1):
Line: Chiefs favored by 7.5
Over/under: 40.5
My prediction: Chiefs- 27, Raiders- 20.. I don’t like this game. At all. I really really really hate the Chiefs, for three reasons:
1. Andy Reid
2. The way they play is boring
3. They keep proving me wrong
Well, let them prove me wrong again.
Raiders cover

Results: Chiefs- 24, Raiders- 7.. 1/3, just the game correct. And again, it was 7-7 at the half and 14-7 after three. This was not a blowout by any stretch of the imagination.

Carolina Panthers (1-3, 1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3, 2-2):*
Line: Vikings favored by 1
Over/under: 44
My prediction: Panthers- 13, Vikings- 10.. Best wishes to Adrian Peterson and his family after the tragic news about the death of his two year old son. Peterson says he is going to play, but who knows.
Panthers cover

Results: Panthers- 35, Vikings- 10… It went just over, but I got the other two right on this one. Talk about an inconsistent team. The Panthers have two blowout wins and are still below .500- including losses to the Cardinals and Bills, with their coach on the hot seat.

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4, 0-4) at New York Jets (3-2, 4-1):*
Line: Jets favored by 1
Over/under: 41
My prediction: Steelers- 23, Jets- 14.. This is totally a gut call, but this is going to be a Jets loss. Coming off of a huge Monday Night road win in Atlanta with a rookie QB against Dick LeBeau and two weeks rest.. I don’t think the Steelers are very good, but I’d be surprised if they lose this game.
Steelers cover

Results: Steelers- 19, Jets- 6.. Yay, a 3/3. This was predictable, as mentioned above. The Jets and Steelers are probably about even, and the Steelers were on the road, but it was just clear that they would win this game.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3, 2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4, 1-3):
Line: Eagles favored by 3
Over/under: 45
My prediction: Eagles- 24, Buccaneers- 13.. I don’t like the Eagles being favored by three on the road, but this is the Bucs we are talking about. They have a great defense, but they have scored twenty seven points in the last month, so I don’t see them putting up a lot of points, even against a horrid Eagles defense.
Eagles cover

Results: Eagles- 31, Buccaneers- 20.. The Buccaneers do the same thing every week. They hang around for a while, sometimes longer than others, and then lose football games. By the way, Football Outsiders has them as THE BEST 0-5 team since they started tracking teams. But Football Outsiders can’t really cope with terrible coaches (an example: they have the Panthers ranked eight in the NFL). Over/under wrong.

Green Bay Packers (2-2, 2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2, 3-2):
Line: Packers favored by 1
Over/under: 49.5
My prediction: Packers- 31, Ravens- 28.. This is going to be a high scoring game, and I think the Ravens have one of the top home field advantages in football. So this is, in many ways, a really stupid pick, and I admit it. But the Packers, to me, are one of the six or seven best teams in the NFL, while the Ravens are more in the 10-12 range. So I’ll take Aaron Rodgers on the road.
Ravens cover

Results: Packers- 19, Ravens- 17.. Again, just the over/under wrong, this time drastically. This was a pretty bad game to watch throughout, as it was 16-3 after three quarters and had a total of 15 punts in the game, which was not expected with two efficient offenses on the field.

Tennessee Titans (3-2, 3-1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (4-1, 4-1):- Lock of the Week
Line: Seahawks favored by 12
Over/under: 41
My prediction: Seahawks- 30, Titans- 13.. Ryan Fitzpatrick at an angry Seattle team coming off of a loss? Come on. Let’s lock this up.
Seahawks cover

Results: Seahawks- 20, Titans- 13.. I was less than impressed with Seattle in this game, and got 1/3 correct. I think it’s time to move them down a little bit in power rankings in general, as this doesn’t look like the second best football team in the NFL, but closer to the back of the top five.

New Orleans Saints (5-0, 4-1) at New England Patriots (4-1, 2-3):
Line: Patriots favored by 1
Over/under: 50.5
My prediction: Patriots- 27, Saints- 23.. You almost never see the Patriots favored by less than a field goal at home, and this shows and reminds us how poorly they have played and how good the Saints are. This is a classic “Nobody cares about us” Bill Belichick win.
Patriots cover

Results: Patriots- 30, Saints- 27.. I got the over/under wrong, but given the shocking way this game ended, I can’t complain. By the way, shame on the large numbers of Patriots fans who left early with the game far from over. I’d understand it if this were the Rams or Dolphins, but with the success this football team has given their fans, I think the fans should be a little bit more thankful.

Arizona Cardinals (3-2, 4-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2, 3-2):
Line: 49ers favored by 10.5
Over/under: 40.5
My prediction: 49ers- 16, Cardinals- 10… The Cardinals are being under appreciated. The 49ers might be over appreciated. This looks like a low scoring, 49ers win with the Cards covering.
Cardinals cover

Results: 49ers- 32, Cardinals- 20… 1/3, just the game correct. By the way, this was another spread that I should have easily won. The score was 22-20 after three quarters, and 29-20 with under five minutes left. The 49ers covered with a late field goal.

St. Louis Rams (2-3, 1-4) at Houston Texans (2-3, 0-5):
Line: Texans favored by 9
Over/under: 43
My prediction: Texans- 34, Rams- 10.. It’s not as much that I’m giving the Texans the benefit of the doubt as it is that the Rams are terrible, but this is the last week I’m trusting Houston. And if they win by 24, their line next week will probably be inflated.
Texans cover

Results: Rams- 38, Texans- 13.. Just the over/under correct. It’s time to bid adieu to the Texans we grew to know and respect last season, as this team is in complete turmoil, as evidenced by the cheering of a select few Texans fans when starting quarterback Matt Schaub got injured against the Rams. Maybe the Rams have something? Or have they just blown out two bad teams in a row? I still tend to lean towards the latter, but they do have talent.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5, 0-5) at Denver Broncos (5-0, 4-1):
Line: Broncos favored by 27
Over/under: 52.5
My prediction: Broncos- 47, Jaguars- 16.. I said I wouldn’t pick the Jaguars until they showed me anything, and I’m sticking by it. Although this line is crazy high and I’m almost positive the Jaguars will cover because John Fox is not Bill Belichick or Pete Carrol in that he doesn’t pleasure in running up the score.
Broncos cover

Results: Broncos- 35, Jaguars- 19.. And it happened! I’m not going to complain about this one, because I knew it was coming and the Broncs were nowhere close to covering. In fact, the score was much closer than the 16 point final spread indicated, as the Jaguars forced three turnovers and trailed just 14-12 at halftime. The Jaguars are still the worst team of all time through six games, but they aren’t as bad as I dreaded, at least with Chad Henne at the helm. When they start Blaine Gabbert, they start the worst QB in the NFL, and by a huge margin. Not even Brandon Weeden, Matt Flynn or Christian hold a candle to Gabbert. He’s that bad, and Henne is actually competent. Oh, and Justin Blackmon is an absolute monster.

Washington Redskins (1-3, 1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3, 4-1):*
Line: Cowboys favored by 5.5
Over/under: 52
My prediction: Redskins- 35, Cowboys- 30.. I just have a feeling that this is the game that everything clicks for the (poorly named) Redskins offensively, and I think they just get one more stop than the Cowboys. The reason? They are coming off a BYE, while the Cowboys are coming off of a 4:30 Sunday game in which 99 points were scored.
Redskins cover

Results: Cowboys- 31, Redskins- 16.. 0/3.. I just guessed wrong here. Nothing else to say. I’m excited for Cowboys-Eagles this Sunday. It’s going to be fun to watch.

Indianapolis Colts (4-1, 3-2) at San Diego Chargers (2-3, 3-1-1):*
Line: Colts favored by 1
Over/under: 50
My prediction: Chargers- 24, Colts- 20.. There is no doubt in my mind that the Colts are a better team than the Chargers. But the Chargers are coming off a loss, while the Colts are coming off arguably their best win of the season, and the Chargers are home on Monday Night Football. The intangibles just favor San Diego here.
Chargers cover

Results: Chargers- 19, Colts- 9.. 3/3 here, and in hindsight it was such an obvious trap game for the Colts. This game was sandwiched between arguably the Colts two most important games this season, both at home. Now they must look forward to playing Peyton Manning (although, with this performance, you can argue that they were looking forward to it last week), which seems even more frightening with Jim Irsay’s stirring of the pot. Manning will now be even more motivated than he would have been to go into his old stomping ground and crush his old team. And his coach isn’t happy either.

Upset picks:
Chargers over Colts- CORRECT
Redskins over Cowboys- INCORRECT
Browns over Lions- INCORRECT
Panthers over Vikings- CORRECT
Steelers over Jets- CORRECT
Not as bad as I feared. 3-2.. 11-14 total

Lock of the week:
Seahawks over Titans- CORRECT
1-0.. 5-1 total

Straight up picks.. 12-3.. 57-35
Spread picks… 6-9… 35-55-2
Over/under picks.. 5-10.. 45-47

  1. dpcathena says:

    You should suggest that games be reduced to 45 minutes and the season be increased by four games to increase revenues to the NFL.

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