Week 5 Predictions

Posted: 10/06/2013 by levcohen in Football

After an unfortunate 0/3 in a really weird game on Thursday (both QB’s got hurt and yet there were a trillion points scored), it’s time to predict week five.

This week looks like it will be a fun one, as the BYE is fortunately taking away Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Washington, who are a combined 2-14.

*= Upset pick

New Orleans Saints (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Chicago Bears (3-1, 1-2-1):*
Line: Saints favored by 1
Over/under: 50.5
My prediction: Bears- 31, Saints- 27.. The Saints are 4-0, but their one game on grass was just a 16-14 win over the anemic Bucs. The Bears can score a lot more than the Bucs can, but more worrisome is the Bears defense, which has given up 21, 30, 23, and 40 points. And now they face Drew Brees. But the Bears as home underdogs gives me enough confidence in their defense to pick them.
Bears cover
Over

New England Patriots (4-0, 2-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-2, 2-1-1):*
Line: Patriots favored by 1
Over/under: 45.5
My prediction: Bengals- 23, Patriots- 20.. Talk about two spectacular games. Saints-Bears and Patriots-Bengals. Both home teams are one point underdogs, and I’m taking both. One of them is bound to lose, but when looking at each individually, I just prefer the home team. The Bengals struggled last week, but I think they’ll bounce back at home.
Bengals cover
Under

Detroit Lions (3-1, 3-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-2, 1-2):
Line: Packers favored by 7.5
Over/under: 54
My prediction: Packers- 37, Lions- 27.. This will be another incredibly exciting game, and the Packers coming off the BYE at home should be able to cover this high spread, even against a surprising Detroit Lions team.
Packers cover
Over

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0, 3-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-1, 3-0-1):*
Line: Chiefs favored by 2.5
Over/under: 38
My prediction: Titans- 20, Chiefs- 16.. It’s time for the Chiefs to lose a game. It just is. And the Titans have won their two home games by an average of 14 points. Jake Locker is out, but Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t a big step down. Give me Tennessee (the 4-1 Titans!)
Titans cover
Under

Seattle Seahawks (4-0, 4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-1, 2-2):
Line: Seahawks favored by 2.5
Over/under: 43.5
My prediction: Seahawks- 20, Colts- 17.. The Seahawks are just a much better team than the Colts (probably more than the six points better that this line entails), even though they historically have been pretty average on the road. This is another terrific early game (there are quite a few on the slate today) and I honestly have no idea what will happen, but let’s pick the 4-0 team.
Seahawks cover
Under

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4, 0-4) at St. Louis Rams (1-3, 0-4):
Line: Rams favored by 10.5
Over/under: 41
My prediction: Rams- 27, Jaguars- 10.. The Rams kind of stink.. But again, I’m not picking the Jags to do anything until they prove me wrong. They have a -98 point differential through four games, and are the worst team through four games that Football Outsiders has ever charted, and they’ve charted every team of every season since the mid 80’s.
Rams cover
Under

Baltimore Ravens (2-2, 2-2) at Miami Dolphins (3-1, 3-1):
Line: Dolphins favored by 2.5
Over/under: 43.5
My prediction: Dolphins- 27, Ravens- 20… I’m on the Dolphins bandwagon, even though they were crushed by New Orleans last week. The Ravens have been miserable on the road so far.
Dolphins cover
Over

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3, 1-3) at New York Giants (0-4, 0-4):*
Line: Giants favored by 2.5
Over/under: 53
My prediction: Eagles- 30, Giants- 28.. The Giants stink. Maybe the Eagles aren’t much better, but there is only one unit on the field to feel good about (neither defense or special teams unit is good at all), and that is the Philly offense.
Eagles cover
Over

Carolina Panthers (1-2, 2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2, 3-1):
Line: Panthers faLinvored by 2.5
Over/under: 42
My prediction: Panthers- 30, Cardinals- 7.. I actually think that the Panthers are actually a solid team, and they are coming off of a BYE. They are two plays away from going 3-0, as the Seahawks and Bills barely beat them. Football Outsiders has them as the sixth best team in football. The Cardinals are 2-2, but they are not a good 2-2 team.
Panthers cover
Under

Denver Broncos (4-0, 4-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2, 3-1):
Line: Broncos favored by 7.5
Over/under: 55.5
My prediction: Broncos- 37, Cowboys- 23.. I’m going to keep rolling with the Broncos, much like the Seahawks, until they show any signs of weakness. And, let’s be honest, the Cowboys are not great or even good. Peyton Manning just has too many weapons that it is impossible to stop them all.
Broncos cover
Over

Houston Texans (2-2, 0-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-2, 2-2):
Line: 49ers favored by 5.5
Over/under: 43
My prediction: 49ers- 24, Texans- 20.. This looks like a field goal or less game, as it is another terrific one between two great teams. I think the 9ers will win the game, but the Texans will keep it close and cover their first spread of the season after starting 0-4 ATS.
Texans cover
Over

San Diego Chargers (2-2, 3-0-1) at Oakland Raiders (1-3, 2-2):
Line: Chargers favored by 4.5
Over/under: 44.5
My prediction: Chargers- 23, Raiders- 16.. This game got moved to 11:30 Eastern Time, so basically nobody will be watching, and that’s a good thing, as it won’t be a particularly good game. I think the Chargers are solid, and should cover this spread.
Chargers cover
Under

New York Jets (2-2, 3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3, 1-3):- Lock of the Week
Line: Falcons favored by 10
Over/under: 44
My prediction: Falcons- 30, Jets- 17.. Simply put, this is going to be a game that the Falcons will win. They are angry and desperate at 1-3, and are home against a Jets team that got clobbered by the Titans.
Falcons cover
Over

Upset picks:
Bears over Saints
Bengals over Patriots
Titans over Chiefs
Eagles over Giants

Lock of the week:
Falcons over Jets

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