Week 3 review

Posted: 09/24/2013 by levcohen in Football

Green Bay Packers (1-1, 1-1 against the spread) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1, 1-0-1 ATS):*
Line: Packers favored by 3
Over/under: 50
My prediction: Bengals- 26, Packers- 21.. The Bengals are too good of a team to be three point home underdogs against anyone. Even a team like the Packers, who under normal circumstances I would never pick to go 1-2. But I like Cincy here.
Bengals cover
Under

Results: Bengals- 34, Packers- 30.. The Packers made me sweat it out until the end, but in the end I got a 2/3 with the over/under wrong. The Bengals are a really good football team.

St. Louis Rams (1-1, 0-2 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1, 2-0):
Line: Cowboys favored by 3
Over/under: 46.5
My prediction: Cowboys- 27, Rams- 21.. The Cowboys aren’t very good, but they should probably be more than field goal favorites at home against St. Louis.
Cowboys cover
Over

Results: Cowboys- 31, Rams- 7.. The Rams offense was terrible in this one, which again prevented me from getting a 3/3, as I missed the over/under.

San Diego Chargers (1-1, 2-0) at Tennessee Titans (1-1, 2-0):*
Line: Titans favored by 3
Over/under: 43.5
My prediction: Chargers- 27, Titans- 17.. I think the Chargers, led by a rejuvenated Philip Rivers, are a more talented and better football team than the Titans, led by Jake Locker. But the Titans have proved me wrong twice in a row, so who knows. This game is a tough one to pick.
Chargers cover
Over

Results: Titans- 20, Chargers- 17.. I got an 0-2-1 on this one, but it should have been a 2-1, as the Chargers made a defensive gaffe at the end of the game that lost them the contest.

Cleveland Browns (0-2, 0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2, 1-1):
Line: Vikings favored by 7
Over/under: 40.5
My prediction: Vikings- 20, Browns- 17.. The Browns, after the Trent Richardson trade, are probably the front runners for worst non-Jaguar team in the NFL. They hit the road to play perhaps the worst team in the NFC, the Vikings. What a terrible game.
Browns cover
Under

Results: Browns- 31, Vikings- 27.. I got the spread right, but I was as shocked as anyone else with this result.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2, 1-1) at New England Patriots (2-0, 0-2):
Line: Patriots favored by 7.5
Over/under: 44.5
My prediction: Patriots- 27, Buccaneers- 16.. This was another game that was incredibly difficult to pick. The Patriots are 0-2 against the spread in two very underwhelming wins, and Rob Gronkowski has been ruled out. On the other hand, the Bucs, who were semi-hyped going into the season, lost a poorly played game to the Jets and covered against the Saints. For one more week, I’ll trust the Pats.
Patriots cover
Under

Results: Patriots- 23, Buccaneers- 3.. I got a 3/3 here, as the Bucs are an incredibly anemic offense. Their defense is fine, but if their offense continues to struggle this much, they’ll keep getting blown out.

Arizona Cardinals (1-1, 2-0) at New Orleans Saints (2-0, 1-1):
Line: Saints favored by 8
Over/under: 48.5
My prediction: Saints- 24, Cardinals- 20.. I think people might be slightly overrating a Saints offense that has put up 39 points total in the first two games. And they might be slightly underrating a Cardinals team that is 2-0 against the spread.
Cardinals cover
Under

Results: Saints- 31, Cardinals- 7.. The Saints underrated defense kept me from getting a 3/3, as they absolutely throttled the Cardinals en route to a thrashing.

Detroit Lions (1-1, 1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2, 0-2):*
Line: Lions favored by 1
Over/under: 48
My prediction: Redskins- 31, Lions- 30.. This is just a random shot in the dark. Both of these teams are shaky defensively, and with Reggie Bush out, I’ll give the Redskins the benefit of the doubt at home. But if they fall to 0-3, I’ll be convinced that they are a bad team.
Redskins cover
Over

Results: Lions- 27, Redskins- 20.. Ok, the Redskins suck. I’m now convinced. 0/3.

New York Giants (0-2, 0-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-2, 0-2):
Line: Giants favored by 1
Over/under: 47
My prediction: Giants- 28, Panthers- 23.. This is another “who knows” game. I just don’t see the Giants falling to 0-3. Now I’ve predicted the NFC East, the worst division in football, to go 4-0 this week. I’m already 0 for 1. What do I know?
Giants cover
Over

Results: Panthers- 38, Giants- 0.. Again, everyone was shocked by this, and I’m no exception. The Giants also look like a terrible football team. Man, the NFC East is terrible. 0/3.

Houston Texans (2-0, 0-2) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1, 1-1):
Line: Texans favored by 1
Over/under: 45
My prediction: Texans- 24, Ravens- 16.. I might have picked the Ravens, but Ray Rice isn’t playing, which is obviously a huge blow to a very Rice-oriented offense. Curiously, the line, which was at Texans -2.5, has actually gone more towards the Ravens.
Texans cover
Under

Results: Ravens- 30, Texans- 9.. I got just the over/under correct, as the Texans really played terribly in an all around sloppy game.

Atlanta Falcons (1-1, 1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0, 2-0):
Line: Dolphins favored by 2.5
Over/under: 44.5
My prediction: Dolphins- 24, Falcons- 20.. I reallly like the Dolphins, although I would have thought that this would be more like a pick ‘em, as the Falcons are a popular team. I’m picking Miami to go to 3-0, which is frightening but very realistic.
Dolphins cover
Under

Results: Dolphins- 27, Falcons- 23… I was pretty happy with this prediction, but I got the over/under wrong as I picked just under and it went well over. The Dolphins are now 3-0, although this looked like a loss throughout most of the game, and I think they are a playoff team.

Buffalo Bills (1-1, 2-0) at New York Jets (1-1, 2-0):*
Line: Jets favored by 2.5
Over/under: 40.5
My prediction: Bills- 17, Jets- 16.. Another toss up. These two teams are identical. They both barely lost to the Patriots and barely beat a poor team at home. Who knows what will happen.
Bills cover
Under

Results: Jets- 27, Bills- 20.. Another 0/3.

Indianapolis Colts (1-1, 0-2) at San Francisco 49ers (1-1, 1-1):
Line: 49ers favored by 9.5
Over/under: 46.5
My prediction: 49ers- 31, Colts- 17.. The 49ers are going to be angry. I don’t know if I like picking against the Colts when they are 9.5 point underdogs, but the 49ers are going to come out strong.
49ers cover
Over

Results: Colts- 27, 49ers- 7.. Yet another 0/3, and I was absolutely shocked by this result. Perhaps the 9ers aren’t the team we all think they are? Or is the Colts offense really this good?

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2, 0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-0, 2-0):-LOCK OF THE WEEK
Line: Seahawks favored by 19
Over/under: 40
My prediction: Seahawks- 24, Jaguars- 6.. This will likely be the biggest line of the year, with the worst team in the NFL traveling to play the best. The Seahawks are probably 20 points better than the Jags based on talent, but they will rest their starters.
Jaguars cover
Under

Results: Seahawks- 45, Jaguars- 17… Ok, so they did cover. Remind me never to pick the Jaguars again. Ever.

Chicago Bears (2-0, 0-1-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-2, 0-2):
Line: Bears favored by 1
Over/under: 41
My prediction: Bears- 27, Steelers- 16.. Another terrible game to pick. The Steelers stink.
Bears cover
Over

Results: Bears- 40, Steelers- 23.. I got a 3/3 here, in a game that was slightly closer than the 17 point final spread indicates. The Steelers, after going down 17-0 by the end of the first quarter, rallied and cut the deficit to 27-23 midway through the fourth, before the Bears ran away with the game.

Oakland Raiders (1-1, 2-0) at Denver Broncos (2-0, 2-0):
Line: Broncos favored by 14
Over/under: 48.5
My prediction: Broncos- 38, Raiders- 20
Broncos cover
Over

Results: Broncos- 37, Raiders- 21.. I almost nailed this one exactly.

Upset picks:
Bengals over Packers- CORRECT
Chargers over Titans- INCORRECT
Redskins over Lions- INCORRECT
Bills over Jets- INCORRECT

1-3.. 3-8 total

Lock of the week:
Seahawks over Jaguars- CORRECT

3-0 total

Straight up picks: 8-8.. 29-19 total
Against the spread.. still gulp..: 7-8-1.. 17-29-2 total
Over/under.. terrible: 5-11.. 24-24 total

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