Week 14 Review

Posted: 12/11/2012 by levcohen in Football

St. Louis Rams (5-6-1, 8-4-0 against the spread) vs. Buffalo Bills (5-7, 6-6):
Line: Bills favored by 3
Over/under: 42
My prediction: Bills- 24, Rams- 20.. With Danny Amendola “questionable” for this game, I just don’t have enough confidence in the Rams offense. The Bills offense has the two good running backs- Spiller and Jackson- and I wouldn’t be surprised if Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for over 200 yards (for a change).
Bills cover
Over

Results: Rams- 15, Bills- 12.. 0/3.

Dallas Cowboys (6-6, 4-8) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (7-5, 6-5-1):
Line: Bengals favored by 3.5
Over/under: 46
My prediction: Bengals- 24, Cowboys- 17.. Cowboys on the surface have been playing better, but they really haven’t. Their four wins since early October have been over: Cleveland, Carolina, Philadelphia (x2). Not a stacked group of teams. They also have only covered in one of their last six games, and that one was against Philly when Vegas was still overrating Philly. Bengals have been playing well.
Bengals cover
Under

Results: Cowboys- 20, Bengals- 19.. Over/under correct.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-10, 5-7) vs. Cleveland Browns (4-8, 7-4-1):
Line: Browns favored by 7
Over/under: 38
My prediction: Browns- 23, Chiefs- 20.. The Browns have been great against the spread, but they rarely are favored by 7.
Chiefs cover
Over

Results: Browns- 30, Chiefs- 7.. just pick right.

Tennessee Titans (4-8, 4-8) vs. Indianapolis Colts (8-4, 8-4)*:
Line: Colts favored by 6
Over/under: 47
My prediction: Titans- 27, Colts- 21.. Just a gut feeling. The Colts aren’t very good, and they are going to lose one of these games. Why not against division rival Tennessee, who is reeling of late but still has Chris Johnson?
Titans cover
Over

Results: Colts- 27, Titans- 23.. Just pick wrong.

Chicago Bears (8-4, 6-6) vs. Minnesota Vikings (6-6, 4-7-1)*:
Line: Bears favored by 3
Over/under: 39.5
My prediction: Vikings- 23, Bears- 17.. Call it another gut feeling. The Vikings are 2-0 when they are home underdogs, and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games. The Bears are still overrated, they haven’t been good of late.
Vikings cover
Over

Results: Vikings- 21, Bears- 14.. over/under wrong.

San Diego Chargers (4-8, 5-7) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5, 5-6-1):
Line: Steelers favored by 9.5
Over/under: 40
My prediction: Steelers- 27, Chargers- 17.. Big Ben comes back in a big way.
Steelers cover
Over

Results: Chargers- 34, Steelers- 24.. just over/under right.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-9, 2-9-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6, 9-2-1):
Line: Buccaneers favored by 9
Over/under: 48
My prediction: Buccaneers- 31, Eagles- 24
Eagles cover
Over

Results: Eagles- 23, Buccaneers- 21.. just cover pick right.

Baltimore Ravens (9-3, 5-6-1) vs. Washington Redskins (6-6, 7-5):
Line: Redskins favored by 1
Over/under: 47.5
My prediction: Redskins- 26, Ravens- 20
Redskins cover
Under

Results: Redskins- 31, Ravens- 28.. over/under wrong.

Atlanta Falcons (11-1, 7-4-1) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-9, 5-7):
Line: Falcons by 3
Over/under: 48
My prediction: Falcons- 31, Panthers- 27.. The Panthers are the sneaky upset pick this week for many people, but not for me. They did just lose to the Chiefs last week.
Falcons cover
Over

Results: Panthers- 30, Falcons- 20.. just over/under right.

New York Jets (5-7, 6-6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10, 6-6)*:
Line: Jets by 2.5
Over/under: 38
My prediction: Jaguars- 20, Jets- 17
Jaguars cover
Under

Results: Jets- 17, Jaguars- 10.. just over/under right.

Miami Dolphins (5-7, 5-6-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1, 7-5):
Line: 49ers by 10.5
Over/under: 39
My prediction: 49ers- 24, Dolphins- 16
Dolphins cover
Over

Results: 49ers- 27, Dolphins- 13.. just cover pick wrong.

New Orleans Saints (5-7, 6-6) vs. New York Giants (7-5, 5-6-1):
Line: Giants by 4.5
Over/under: 53
My prediction: Giants- 31, Saints- 28
Saints cover
Over

Results: Giants- 52, Saints- 27.. cover wrong.

Arizona Cardinals (4-8, 5-6-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks (7-5, 8-4):
Line: Seahawks by 10
Over/under: 36
My prediction: Seahawks- 23, Cardinals- 14
Cardinals cover
Over

Results: Seahawks- 58, Cardinals- 0.. cover wrong.

Detroit Lions (4-8, 5-6-1) vs. Green Bay Packers (8-4, 6-6):
Line: Packers favored by 6.5
Over/under: 48
My prediction: Packers- 30, Lions- 20
Packers cover
Over

Results: Packers- 27, Lions- 20.. just over/under wrong.

Houston Texans (11-1, 8-4) vs. New England Patriots (9-3, 7-4-1):
Line: Patriots by 3.5
Over/under: 50.5
My prediction: Patriots- 28, Texans- 24
Patriots cover
Over

Results: Patriots- 42, Texans- 14.. the only 3/3.

9-7 on pick.. 125-82-1 total
6-10 on spread… 111-97 total
9-7 on over/under… 95-106-4 total

Upset picks:
Jaguars over Jets- WRONG
Titans over Colts- WRONG
Vikings over Bears- RIGHT

21-29 total.

Lock: Broncos over Raiders- RIGHT

12-2

QB of the week: Cam Newton, Panthers: Cam is on here for the second straight week. His performance was even better this week. He threw for 287 yards and two touchdowns, but that wasn’t the most impressive thing. On nine rushes, Newton also racked up 116 yards rushing and a touchdown. People think he has had a bad year, but that’s fallacious. He has the third most fantasy points among all players.

Surprising QB of the week: Nick Foles, Eagles: Foles bested his best game yardage wise by 130 (he threw for 381). He doubled his passing touchdown total (2 to 4). He didn’t commit a turnover. And the big signal caller also had what might turn out to be his best rushing game: 3 carries for 27 yards and an excruciatingly slow touchdown.

Disappointing QB of the week: Andrew Luck, Colts: With a good matchup and a streak of double digit fantasy points in 10 of his last 11 starts, Luck picked a bad week to lay an egg, as the playoffs started in most fantasy leagues. The “Lucky” Colts found a way to win again, but Luck didn’t throw for 200 yards, only the second time that’s happened this season. He threw a touchdown with two interceptions, and now has 10 picks in his last five games, and has an NFL high 18 on the season.

RB of the week: Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks: Lynch ran for a ho-hum 128 yards and three touchdowns. What was amazing is that he did all that he had a season high in yards and touchdowns on a season low 11 carries in the Seahawks drubbing of the Cardinals.

Surprising RB of the week: David Wilson, Giants: Wilson was supposedly “in the doghouse” of coach Coughlin. He emphatically got out of the doghouse, and will now challenge Ahmad Bradshaw for the starting job. He busted out to the tune of 100 yards on 13 carries and two touchdowns. His best play, however, was a long kick return for a touchdown.

Disappointing RB of the week: Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants: Going against the worst run defense in the NFL, expectations were high. His fantasy point total was not. He ran just 11 times for 33 yards.

WR of the week: Brandon Marshall, Bears: Marshall got an amazing 19 targets, and it seemed as if Jay Cutler passed to him every time. That is not so good for the Bears, but great for Marshall’s fantasy owners. Marshall caught 10 passes for 160 yards and a touchdown.

Surprising WR of the week: Brandon Lloyd, Patriots: Since week 7, Lloyd had just 18 catches for for 160 yards. In this one, he had seven catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns, including one score where he fell on the ball in the end-zone.

Disappointing WR of the week: A.J. Green, Bengals: Green had three catches for 44 yards. For most players, that is a decent game. Not for Green.

TE of the week: Aaron Hernandez, Patriots: Coming into the game, Hernandez was questionable to play. He ended up playing, obviously, and playing well. He caught eight balls (on 11 targets) for 58 yards and two touchdowns.

Surprising TE of the week: Clay Harbor, Eagles: After Brent Celek was concussed on the first play of the game, Harbor came in and performed admirably. He caught all six of the ball thrown to him and racked up 52 yards and a touchdown.

Disappointing TE of the week: Mercedes Lewis, Jaguars: Unlike some of his tight end peers, Lewis was actually getting some consistent targets. That trend continued, as he was targeted four times, but caught just one ball for four yards.

Waiver add/drops:

5 good adds (everything being ‘short term’ with three weeks left):
Montell Owens, Jaguars (8.8% ESPN Ownership): As previously promised, I will continue to list the Jaguars RB’s here until MJD gets back. Owens at least stayed healthy, and played well. He rushed for 91 yards and a touchdown, stats that will certainly help people’s championship chase.

Bilal Powell, Jets (3.1% ESPN Ownership): Over the past four weeks, Powell has 54 carries, 218 yards and four touchdowns. His remaining schedule is very favorable, as he plays Tennessee and Buffalo with a bad matchup against San Diego in between.

David Wilson, Giants (40.3% ESPN Ownership): He is a must own if you are a Bradshaw owner. Otherwise, still worth a speculative add. Must add in keeper leagues.

Clay Harbor, Eagles (.1% ESPN Ownership): With Brent Celek already ruled out for Thursday Night’s game, Harbor is a decent plug and play. He has an average matchup with Cincinnati, followed by a good one with Washington if Celek isn’t back yet.

Danario Alexander, Rams (27.2% ESPN Ownership): I had him in the PPR segment last week, but since then he has only gained less than half a % point (up from 26.8). He exploded for another seven catches, 88 yards and two touchdowns, so he should now be a must add in all formats.

3 good adds in PPR leagues:
Jason Avant, Eagles (.5% ESPN Ownership): I had Avant right here last week, and he responded with seven catches for 133 yards.

Andrew Hawkins, Bengals (10.7% ESPN Ownership): Hawkins is getting more involved in the offense, and has 11 catches in the past two weeks. With a good matchup against the Eagles this Thursday, I could see him having another decent game.

Dwayne Harris, Cowboys (.2% ESPN Ownership): With news that Dez Bryant might be out for the year, Harris is going to get a lot more looks. He could easily become a four catch a game guy.

3 non-injured players at 80% plus ESPN ownership who can be dropped if needed:
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals (100% ESPN Ownership): It’s time, my friends. Fitz is still one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, but he might be a little bit past his prime, and has John Skelton and Ryan Lindley throwing to him. After a friendly matchup this week against the Lions, he has to play the vaunted defenses of the Bears and 49ers to close out the year. Fitz has just six catches and 66 yards over the past four weeks with no touchdowns. I wouldn’t feel great about dropping him, but if you desperately need the open spot he is sadly drop-able.

Vernon Davis, 49ers (98% ESPN Ownership): Is it even a question now? Davis had one catch for four yards against Miami, and has three for 19 since his decent game in week 11. Discounting that game, Davis has had 12 catches for 110 yards since week 5. Ouch.

Falcons D/ST (91.1% ESPN Ownership): They are the 19th ranked defense. They should not be owned. They put up -3 points against the Panthers.

3 non-injured players at 50%+ ESPN ownership who SHOULD be dropped:
Nate Washington, Titans (73.1% ESPN Ownership): It looks like Kenny Britt has claimed the #1 WR spot in Tennessee, and Washington has just one 100 yard game and four touchdowns on the season.

Beanie Wells, Cardinals (68.6% ESPN Ownership): Beanie Wells is horrible. And now it looks like the Cardinals are starting to believe that themselves, as he got just six carries on Sunday.

Robert Meachem, Chargers (60.4% ESPN Ownership): People are stupid. That’s the only reason 60% of leagues have him owned. It’s the only possible explanation. (FYI, he got shut out again in week 14).

Injury report:
Robert Griffin III, Redskins: The star QB (most fantasy points in the NFL) is hurt, but not as badly as was initially feared. He is questionable for this week.

Dez Bryant, Cowboys: The star WR fractured a finger and could well be out for the season.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants: He hurt his knee, but should play this week.

Brent Celek, Eagles: He was concussed, and is OUT for this Thursday Night.

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