(Late) week 12 Review.

Posted: 11/28/2012 by levcohen in Baseball, Basketball, Football, NCAA

Sorry for posting this a day late…

*= upset pick

Minnesota Vikings (6-4) at Chicago Bears (7-3):
Line: Bears favored by 6
Over/under: 38.5
My prediction: Bears- 23, Vikings- 10
Bears cover
Under

Results: Bears- 28, Vikings- 10.. 3/3 on this one, just 5 points off a perfect score.

Oakland Raiders (3-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-5):
Line: Bengals favored by 9
Over/under: 50.5
My prediction: Bengals- 30, Raiders- 23
Raiders cover
Over

Results: Bengals- 34, Raiders- 10.. 1/3, with just the pick right. I really overestimated the Raiders.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-8):
Line: Steelers favored by 1.5
Over/under: 34
My prediction: Steelers- 20, Browns- 17
Steelers cover
Over

Results: Browns- 20, Steelers- 14.. 0-2-1 on this. I’m surprised that the Browns finally closed a game out, but they proved me wrong.

Buffalo Bills (4-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-4):
Line: Colts favored by 3
Over/under: 50.5
My prediction: Colts- 35, Bills- 31
Colts cover
Over

Results: Colts- 20, Bills- 13.. 2-3, I totally blew the over/under.

Denver Broncos (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9): – Lock
Line: Broncos favored by 10.5
Over/under: 42.5
My prediction: Broncos- 30, Chiefs- 10
Broncos cover
Under

Results: Broncos- 17, Chiefs- 9.. Remind me never to pick a team favored by 10+ to cover.. 2/3.

Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at Miami Dolphins (4-6)*:
Line: Seahawks favored by 3
Over/under: 37.5
My prediction: Dolphins- 21, Seahawks- 17
Dolphins cover
Over

Results: Dolphins- 24, Seahawks- 21.. I nailed this one almost exactly. 3/3.

Atlanta Falcons (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4):
Line: Falcons favored by 1.5
Over/under: 52
My prediction: Falcons- 31, Buccaneers- 28
Falcons cover
Over

Results: Falcons- 24, Buccaneers- 23. Only the pick right, although a Matt Bryant missed 20 yard field goal cost me the spread win.

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)*:
Line: Titans favored by 3
Over/under: 44.5
My prediction: Jaguars- 24, Titans- 21
Jaguars cover
Over

Results: Jaguars- 24, Titans- 19.. So annoying! I got this upset pick right, and was off by only 2 points, but those points cost me the over/under.

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-6):
Line: Pick ‘em
Over/under: 47
My prediction: Ravens- 24, Chargers- 17
Ravens cover
Under

Results: Ravens- 16, Chargers- 13.. Ray Rice’s amazing 30 yard play on 4th and 29 gave me a 3/3.

San Francisco 49ers (7-2-1) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)*:
Line: 49ers favored by 1.5
Over/under: 50
My prediction: Saints- 28, 49ers- 24
Saints cover
Over

Results: 49ers- 31, Saints- 21.. Got this one wrong, with just the over/under right.

St. Louis Rams (3-6-1) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6)*:
Line: Cardinals favored by 1.5
Over/under: 36.5
My prediction: Rams- 17, Cardinals- 13
Rams cover
Under

Results: Rams- 31, Cardinals- 17.. 2/3, over/under wrong. Who would have thought that the Rams could score 31 in a game.

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at New York Giants (6-4)*:
Line: Giants favored by 3
Over/under: 51.5
My prediction: Packers- 30, Giants- 23
Packers cover
Over

Results: Giants- 38, Packers- 10.. 0/3. The Giants really came out strong.

Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-7):
Line: Panthers favored by 2.5
Over/under: 40.5
My prediction: Panthers- 23, Eagles- 20
Panthers cover
Over

Results: Panthers- 30, Eagles- 22. 3/3. I don’t want to talk about this game.

13-3 on pick.. 106-69-1 total
10-6 on spread… 95-81 total
8-7-1 on over/under… 79-92-4 total

I had a pretty good week, but my over/under woes continue.

Upset picks:
Packers over Giants- INCORRECT
Rams over Cardinals- CORRECT
Saints over 49ers- INCORRECT
Jaguars over Titans- CORRECT
Dolphins over Seahawks- CORRECT

That plus my Redskins over Cowboys pick makes it 4-2, 18-25 total.

Lock of the week:
Broncos over Chiefs- CORRECT. 10-1

QB of the week: Cam Newton, Panthers: Cam! Newton carved up the Eagles for 306 yards on 18 completions, and threw two touchdowns with zero interceptions. He also, as always, added value on the ground, running for 51 yards and two touchdowns.

Surprising QB of the week: Russell Wilson, Seahawks: Coming into this game, he had a bad road record with bad stats. He threw for 220 yards and two touchdowns, and read for 40 yards.

Disappointing QB of the week: Carson Palmer, Raiders: With a juicy matchup against the Bengals and a streak of good performances, we all thought he’d do well. He threw for 146 yards with one touchdown against two turnovers.

RB of the week: Bryce Brown, Eagles: Bryce Brown! With LeSean McCoy out, he ran for close to 180 yards with two touchdowns in a breakout performance. The only negative is the two lost fumbles.

Surprising RB of the week: Shane Vereen, Patriots: Vereen was one of a billion Patriots who played well. He rushed for just 42 yards, but added 91 through the air with a receiving touchdown.

Disappointing RB of the week: Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks: Lynch had just 46 yards on 19 carries, the first time since week 6 that he has ran for less than 100 yards.

WR of the week: Dez Bryant, Cowboys: Dez had eight catches for 145 yards and two touchdowns. He has now had three straight great games. In his last three games, he has 23 catches for 377 yards and four touchdowns.

Surprise WR of the week: Chris Givens, Rams: Givens is the classic hit or miss player, and this year he definitely hit, with five catches for 115 yards and a touchdown.

Disappointing WR of the week: Mike Wallace, Steelers: Wallace had Charlie Batch throwing to him, but you still have to expect more than one catch for nine yards.

TE of the week: Charles Clay, Dolphins: six catches, 84 yards and a touchdown. Pretty solid. He could also be my surprise pick.

Surprising TE of the week: Jacob Tamme, Broncos: Tamme had 48 yards and a touchdown, for his first score since week one. By the way, this was a bizarre week for tight ends. Of the top 14 tight end finishers, only four are in the top 20 overall.

Disappointing TE of the week: Jimmy Graham, Saints: Graham, the top healthy TE in football, had just four catches for 33 yards and didn’t get into the endzone.

Waiver add/drops:

3 good short term adds:
Bryce Brown, Eagles (38.8% ESPN ownership).. This is his second straight appearance, but why not? With LeSean McCoy out again this week, I think Brown will have another good game.

Rashad Jennings, Jaguars (47.1% ESPN ownership).. With MJD out another week and Jalen Parmelee out for the year, horrible Jennings will get a start this week.

Jarius Wright (.4% ESPN ownership).. If Percy Harvin is out again, Wright will be solid.

3 good long term adds:
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos (25.5% ESPN ownership).. Moreno snagged the Broncos starting job over Ronnie Hillman. He won’t be great, but he should be low risk.

Jacquizz Rodgers, Falcons (18.8% ESPN ownership).. Rodgers is better than Turner, no doubt about that. Hopefully he takes Turner’s job sooner rather than later.

Mohammed Sanu, Bengals (2.3% ESPN ownership).. Sanu is a touchdown monster, with four in his last three weeks.

3 good adds in PPR (points per reception) leagues:
WR Cole Beasley, Cowboys (0.0% ESPN ownership).. Miles Austin might be out this week, and Beasley is a low risk, decent reward option when starting.

WR Davone Bess, Dolphins (16.2% ESPN ownership).. Bess is an option who is best left alone in standard leagues, but he is decent in PPR leagues.

WR Ryan Broyles, Lions (3.2% ESPN ownership).. Broyles had 6 for 126 last week, and he’s in a great position as Calvin Johnson takes a ton of attention, and Detroit throws a lot. He should continue to get targets.

3 non-injured players at 80% owned or higher who can be dropped if you need a roster spot:
James Jones, Packers (91.4% ESPN ownership).. He posted a big fat 0 last week, and Greg Jennings is coming back. Too inconsistent.

Phillip Rivers, Chargers (87.2% ESPN ownership).. Now the 20th ranked QB, Rivers will be either mediocre or bad every week.

Garrett Hartley, Saints (80.1% ESPN ownership).. Hartley is a kicker, so people may overlook that spot, but it’s actually very important. For example, Lawrence Tynes, a kicker owned less than Hartley, is averaging 5 points per game more than Hartley. That makes a difference.

3 non injured player at 50% owned or higher who should be dropped:
Rashard Mendenhall (70.3% ESPN ownership).. Mendenhall is now in the doghouse for his fumble problems, and he isn’t very good anyway.

Alex Smith (69.8% ESPN ownership).. Colin Kaepernick is the starting QB. Drop Smith.

Ben Tate (64.5% ESPN ownership).. Tate hasn’t even been active recently. Only own Tate if you own Arian Foster, and even then, feel free to drop him.

Injury report:
DeSean Jackson, Eagles: Jackson fractured some ribs and is out for the year. Find a replacement.

Andre Brown, Giants: Brown, Ahmad Bradshaw’s backup (and really they are splitting time), broke his leg and is done for the season.

Kendall Hunter, 49ers: Frank Gore’s backup tore his achillies, and is done.

Matt Forte, Bears: Forte reinjured his ankle and is questionable for this week. I don’t think he plays.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers: Stewart has a high ankle sprain and is doubtful for this Thursday’s game.

Miles Austin, Cowboys: Has a hip injury, and is questionable. Might not be 100% even if he plays.

Games of the nights:
NBA: Nets at CelticsNCAA Basketball: Ohio State vs. Duke in the ACC/BIG TEN CHALLENGE PRESENTED BY DICK’S SPORTING GOODS

In other news:
The Braves have just signed BJ Upton, a talented young centerfielder. They were in a bidding war with the Phillies, and won out on him with a five year deal worth around 75 million. I’m actually happy he didn’t go to the Phillies, because he is over valued.

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Comments
  1. philabundant says:

    I think being over 40% with your upset picks is pretty commendable…

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