Week 9 review

Posted: 11/06/2012 by levcohen in Football

*= upset pick

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals:
Spread: Broncos favored by 4 points
Over/under: 48
My prediction: Broncos- 27, Bengals- 20
Broncos cover

Results: Broncos- 31, Bengals- 23.. Got 2/3 on this one, but this game was closer than the score indicates. Over/under barely incorrect.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns*:
Spread: Ravens favored by 4 points
Over/under: 42
My prediction: Browns- 23, Ravens- 21
Browns cover

Results: Ravens- 25, Browns- 15.. 0/3.. I had the Ravens winning, but had a change of heart

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers:
Spread: Packers favored by 10 points
Over/under: 43.5
My prediction: Packers- 31, Cardinals- 10
Packers cover

Results: Packers- 31, Cardinals- 17.. So close to a 3/3, but the Cards scored a late TD and it went over.

Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans:
Spread: Bears favored by 4.5 points
Over/under: 43.5
My prediction: Bears- 20, Titans- 13
Bears cover

Results: Bears- 51, Titans- 20.. This game was crazy, with the score at 28-2 after the first quarter. 2/3.

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts*:
Spread: Colts favored by 2 points
Over/under: 43.5
My prediction: Dolphins- 23, Colts- 17
Dolphins cover

Results: Colts- 23, Dolphins- 20.. This game was a tossup, and I guessed wrong. Two evenly matched fringe playoff teams, and I only got the over/under right.

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins:
Spread: Redskins favored by 3 points
Over/under: 48.5
My prediction: Redskins- 31, Panthers- 24
Redskins cover

Results: Panthers- 21, Redskins- 13.. 0/3. Redskins are worse than I thought.

Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars:
Spread: Lions favored by 5.5 points
Over/under: 44
My prediction: Lions- 26, Jaguars- 10
Lions cover

Results: Lions- 31, Vikings-14.. Just missed on the over/under, but I got the other two right.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans: – LOCK
Spread: Texans favored by 10 points
Over/under: 46.5
My prediction: Texans- 30, Bills- 17
Texans cover

Results: Texans- 21, Bills- 9.. Again, just over/under wrong.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders*:
Spread: Raiders favored by 2 points
Over/under: 47
My prediction: Buccaneers- 24, Raiders- 20
Buccaneers cover

Results: Buccaneers- 42, Raiders- 32.. I got an upset pick, with, again just the over/under wrong.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks:
Spread: Seahawks favored by 4 points
Over/under: 38.5
My prediction: Seahawks- 23, Vikings- 17
Seahawks cover

Results: Seahawks- 30, Vikings- 20.. Adrian Peterson played well, but the “12th man” won out again. 3/3.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants:
Spread: Giants favored by 3 points
Over/under: 48
My prediction: Giants- 31, Steelers- 24
Giants cover

Results: Steelers- 24, Giants- 20.. 0/3

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons:
Spread: Falcons favored by 3.5
Over/under: 47.5
My prediction: Falcons- 27, Cowboys- 20
Falcons cover

Results: Falcons- 19, Cowboys- 13.. 2/3 on this, with the over/under wrong.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints:- Monday Night
Spread: Saints favored by 3
Over/under: 51.5
My prediction: Saints- 30, Eagles- 26
Saints cover

Results: Saints- 28, Eagles- 13.. Again, just over/under wrong

10-4 on pick.. 74-58 total
9-5 on spread… 70-62 total
2-12 on over/under… 60-71-1 total

god im so bad on over/under

Upset picks:
Dolphins over Colts- INCORRECT
Buccaneers over Raiders- CORRECT
Browns over Ravens- INCORRECT

12-20 total

Lock of the week:
Texans over Bills- CORRECT

8-1 total

QB of the week: Andrew Luck, Colts: Luck threw for 433 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. The rookie is now one of the favorites for rookie of the year. Eerie stat: Former Colts QB Peyton Manning and Luck each have 2,404 yards. The difference? Luck has 10 touchdowns to Manning’s 20, resulting in a passer rating about 30 points difference.

Surprising QB of the week: Carson Palmer, Raiders: Wow. Palmer was airing it out on Sunday, as he threw the ball an incredible 61 times. He completed 39 of those, with 4 touchdowns. Unfortunately, 3 of his passes were caught by the defense.

Disappointing QB of the week: Eli Manning, Giants: Back-to-back showings on the disappointing list for Eli, as he had an even worse game this week. He completed just 10 passes on 24 attempts for 125 yards. For the second straight game, he had under 200 yards with 0 touchdowns and 1 interception.

RB of the week: Doug Martin, Bucs: Martin had one of the best fantasy performances ever. And I’m not exaggerating. He had 251 yards rushing, with 4 rushing touchdowns, while adding 21 yards receiving. He ran for rushing touchdowns of 70, 67, 45 and 1 yard. He had over 200 yards rushing in the second half alone.

Surprising RB of the week: Mikel Leshoure, Lions: I don’t like repeat picks, so Martin wasn’t available here. That leaves me with Leshoure, who also had a pretty good game. Coming into the game, he had one touchdown and he had three on Sunday, to go along with 70 yards.

Disappointing RB of the week: Ryan Mathews, Chargers: Mathews had a juicy matchup against the Chiefs, and finished with only 13 carries for 67 yards with no touchdowns.

WR of the week: Brandon Marshall, Bears: Marshall had a monster game. He caught 9 passes for 122 yards with 3 touchdowns, although a lot of that came in garbage time action.

Surprising WR of the week: T.Y. Hilton, Colts: Hilton had 115 yards in the 4 games prior to last Sunday. He ended up with 6 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown.

Disappointing WR of the week: Percy Harvin, Vikings: Coming into this game, Harvin was a top 3 WR in fantasy. Here are his stat lines: 6 for 84, 12 for 104, 9 for 89, 3 for 22 and a kickoff return touchdown, 8 for 108 and 2 touchdowns, 11 for 133, 4 for 37 and a touchdown, 7 for 90 and a touchdown, 2 for 10. Let’s play a game- Which statline doesn’t belong? Yes, Harvin only had 10 yards last week, and on top of that he got injured late in the game.

TE of the week: Brandon Myers, Raiders: I wanted to pick something else, so Myers could be my surprise pick. But he was just too good to get skipped over as TE of the week. He caught 8 balls for just 59 yards, but added two touchdowns.

Surprising TE of the week: Tom Crabtree, Packers: Crabtree scored his third touchdown of the year this week, and had a surprising breakout for the second time. Here are his stat lines for the last 4 games: 2 for 62 and a touchdown, 0 for 0, 0 for 0, 1 for 72 and a touchdown. Obviously, I don’t think it’s sustainable. But his game this week was very good.

Disappointing TE of the week: Brandon Pettigrew, Lions: Pettigrew caught just 1 pass for 11 yards. The Lions scored 31 points. Not so good.

Key injuries:
Percy Harvin, WR- doubtful for this week
Antonio Brown, WR- doubtful for this week
Darren McFadden, RB- out for this week
Jordy Nelson, WR- BYE this week, questionable the week after
Donnie Avery, WR- questionable this week
Calvin Johnson, WR- questionable for this week

Harvin is a top 5 WR, Brown is top 30, McFadden is a top 20 RB, Nelson is a top 10 WR, Avery is a solid fill in, and Johnson is a top 5 WR. Of those guys, expect Johnson and maybe Avery to play this week. The rest won’t go.

  1. philabundant says:

    Over under is basically a spin of the roulette wheel, but that said it is pretty likely you will trend back toward .500 by the end of the year.

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