Projecting where top available MLB talent will end up.

Posted: 07/21/2012 by levcohen in Baseball

With the MLB trade deadline on July 31, I decided to guess where some of the top available talent would go..

Pitchers:

Cole Hamels  will not be traded.. At this point, that statement isn’t that bold, as the Phillies are rumored to have offered Hamels 6 years at 130 million. Teams are backing off because they think the Phils will resign the ace.

Zach Grienke will either be resigned by the Brewers or traded to the Braves.. Greinke was offered 100M by the Brewers, but if they can’t get it done, I expect him to be traded. The top two teams in the hunt would likely be the Braves and the Orioles, and the Braves would be willing to give up 3-4 good prospects if they knew they would be able to sign him.

Matt Garza will be traded to the Tigers.. The Tigers still fully expect to win the AL Central, even after starting off poorly. After Justin Verlander, their starting pitching is horrible. The price will be steep (4 prospects, including 2-3 top ones), but it is worth it, as the Tigers would be World Series contenders with Garza.

Ryan Dempster will be traded not to the Dodgers, but to the Nationals.. The Dodgers apparently have a 50-50 chance of trading for Dempster, but I believe that the Nats will sneak in and trade for him. One reason is that they have better prospects. A second is that if they are really serious about shutting down Stephen Strasburg, adding someone like Dempster would be essential for them to make the playoffs and be a major factor.

James Shields will almost definitely stay on the Rays.. but if they decide to trade him, and Garza goes somewhere else, I expect the Tigers to be the lead bidder. The Rays want a young catcher and pitching help in any trade. The Tigers can give catcher James McCann, and pitcher Jacob Turner. They could also add some other arms. I actually believe that the Tigers could get both pitchers, if they are willing to trade a combination of McCann, Turner, Nick Castellanos, Drew Smyly, and more.

Wandy Rodriguez will be traded to the Orioles.. The Orioles won’t have to trade too much for Wandy, and need the solid SP. The Astros want to get younger. This trade works.

Edinson Volquez will stay on the Padres… At first, I thought Volquez would be traded, but now it seems like the Padres want to keep him along with Carlos Quentin.

IF Wandy isn’t traded, Jason Vargas or Joe Blanton will be traded to the O’s.

Rafael Betancourt and OR Huston Street will be traded to the Mets.

Hitters:

Hunter Pence will not be traded… He is under team control through next year, and if the Phillies think they can compete next year, they will want to hold onto Pence.

Shane Victorino will be traded to the Pirates.. Unlike Pence, Victorino is not part of the Phillies future. The Pirates need immediate help. A Shane Victorino for Starling Marte trade would be good. The Pirates could add Victorino to their poor offense, and the Phillies would add Marte who could be their left fielder for a long time.

Chase Headley will also be traded to the Pirates or Orioles

Justin Upton will either stay with the D-Backs or get traded to the Blue Jays.. It’s hard to imagine a team wanting to trade JUp (a RF with a ton of potential, under team control for a long time), but it seems like the D-Backs want to do just that. They could get top catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud, along with Anthony Gose.

Marco Scutaro will be traded to the Rangers, where he will be a UTIL player. Or he will be traded to the Tigers, where he could be the starting 2B or 3B.

 

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