My top 5 fantasy baseball busts compared to their ADP in fantasy leagues

Posted: 03/29/2012 by levcohen in Baseball

Today will be the top 10 fantasy busts of the 2012 season, based on their ADP in fantasy leagues.

Curtis Granderson, NYY OF (ADP: 17):

Look. I love Granderson as a fantasy player. He is a consistent steals threat and posts solid 20+ homer years every year. In the Yankees lineup, he will score and drive in 100+ runs. What’s the catch? He is being drafted inside the top 20 on nearly every fantasy site. This is because he hit 41 home runs last year, up from his previous career high of 30. He also hit over .270 against lefties, up from a career average of .220. I don’t think that he can hit 41 homers again, and he will regress. If you can get him in the forth or fifth round (31-50 overall), then go get him. Otherwise, I’ll pass, because his average is nothing special and his HR will go down. As he gets older, he also won’t steal as many bases.

Verdict: I would have Granderson around 35, and not top 20.

Mike Napoli, TEX C/1B (ADP 40):

Napoli had a career year last year, and is the top catcher off the board in most leagues. However, I think that if we look deep inside to his stats there is a different story. He had a career year in terms of homers, but there is reason to think those will go down, as 1/4 of his fly balls went into the stands. That is an extremely high and unsustainable.. Also, he  had the best batting average of his career, hitting over .300. That isn’t going to happen again. He is a career .260 hitter, and last year his BABIP was a career high .344. His batting average and homers will come down this year, so I suggest waiting on Napoli.

Verdict: I think Napoli should be the 3rd catcher off the board (I’d rather have Carlos Santana and Brian McCann). Maybe draft him at 70.

Ryan Howard, PHI 1B (ADP of 140):

Howard is injured (likely out until at least June) and declining. No thanks.

Verdict: He should be around 240, IMO

Alex Rodriguez, NYY 3B (ADP of 70):

Feel free to let the people who pay for name value to take A-rod. He is clearly on the downside of his career, and his numbers are going down every year. More importantly, he is missing huge chunks of time each season with injuries. While his numbers are still solid (when healthy) I would pass on A-rod.

Verdict: If he wasn’t valued on his name, I believe that his ADP would be closer to 140.

Any closer being picked inside the top 120:

I’m not saying that ALL RP’s in the top 120 will be busts, but I AM saying that you should NEVER pay for saves. Closers are very unpredictable, and I’d much rather spend one of my top picks on a hitter. You can always pounce on the waiver wire later for closers. An example: Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson, two top 15 closers are ALREADY done for the year with TJ surgery. Here are the closers being picked in the top 120:

Craig Kimbrel (top 60), Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Paplebon, John Axford, JJ Putz, Drew Storen, Heath Bell

The least likely to bust would be Kimbrel and Rivera. Kimbrel is on a tier of his own and Mo is so consistent that I can’t predict a bust. On the other hand, Storen and Bell look like prime bust candidates. Storen, a young closer, is coming off a great season where he got fairly lucky and Bell is moving from Petco Park (most pitching friendly park in the MLB) to the new Marlins Stadium.


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